We can prepare a bottom fishing plan for BTC and expect it to hit the bottom within the next two months. The probability of breaking 50000 is 63.5%. For 60000, we can first build a 10-20% position and continuously use options to grind costs. For 50000-55000, we can build 50-80% of the position. If the remaining position is below 4.8, we can directly sell it. If we use options, the final cost may be around 50000 or even lower and we will not go short. Why is it set at this price? Because if it's below 58000 yuan, 50% of the mining machines will shut down. If it's below 48000 yuan, 75% of the mining machines will shut down. The latest shutdown price for mining machines is probably between 42000 and 45000 yuan, which has never been lower in history. If it falls, it's impossible to shut down all the mining machines. Why has the bottom been reached in these two months? The reason is that the current macro market is the most uncertain, and the Federal Reserve is very unwilling to loosen its grip. The market expectation is to raise interest rates twice. But in fact, the price of oil has already fallen back to before the US Iran conflict, and there is probably no need to worry about inflation. At most, there may only be one interest rate hike, which is the market's expectation difference. The Federal Reserve holds interest rate meetings in July, September, October, and December. July and September are the most severe periods of inflation, and if we want to raise interest rates during this time, then a bearish landing is likely to directly hit a bottom. After September, inflation will not be a big problem and there is no reason to raise interest rates. The midterm elections are in November, and the latest time to build a position should not be later than November. The market will be relatively good after the midterm elections