Logical analysis and core judgment of Bitcoin market trend

Ladies and gentlemen, the market makers around 4:00 pm today are playing hedging, causing prices to jump up and down, which is very disgusting. Now that the delivery is completed, the market makers have backed up and withdrawn, and the rest is a real hand to hand battle between long and short sides. The battle of life and death has already begun. After 4:00 pm today, the bald head, bare feet, and yin pillar were collected to establish the direction of the bearish position. 20: 00 long upper shadow line locks 60000 resistance. 58000 has been tested twice, and the defense line is gradually moving downwards: the third offensive is underway. The sharp decline in Asian stock markets has provided a catalyst, OI 105, The short position of 982 silk that has not been moved is waiting for this moment. The fourth test shows a high probability of 58000 breakdown, with a target of 54000-55000. Three logical chains: Logic 1: The K-line is speaking. 16: 00 bald and barefoot shadow pillar: bears are absolutely dominant, bulls have no resistance. 20: 00 long upper shadow line: Rebound to 60008 but hit back with a heavy punch. The two candlesticks strung together are: bearish attack → bullish counterattack → bearish retracement. The pattern dominated by bears is clear. Logic 2: The defense line is gradually moving downwards. 58115 → 58337 → 58970, the low point of each bearish probe is rising, and the defensive cost of bulls is increasing. The third attempt at 58970 was already a test when the bears did not use their full strength: the next time they launched a full-scale attack, 58000 is likely to be breached. Logic 3: The catalyst is in place. Asian stock markets plummeted, SPX continued to decline at 7357, and the tray disappeared after option delivery. Triple catalyst stacking with 106689 historical short position: This is no longer a question of 'whether it will fall', but a question of 'when it will fall'. Let's take a look at the funding rates and OI data for both long and short positions: (1) OI trend: OI has remained almost unchanged before and after delivery. Short sellers did not use delivery to close positions: they simply did not want to leave. The target for this batch of bears is not 59000, but 54000. (2) Rate signal: steadily falling from+0.0087% to+0.0040%, indicating that the short-term bulls who were fighting for a rebound in the 58000-59000 area are retreating. Multiple heads decrease=upper tray becomes thinner. (3) Combination signal: OI stability+rate reduction=short holding+long retreat. Beneficial for bears. (4) Position response: Hold a short position without moving. 20: The 00 long upper shadow line has confirmed a resistance of 60000. Two signals: rebound to 60000, blocked/drop below 58000, confirmed with high volume. Summary: The bearish direction is clear. Multi headed counterattacks are powerless. The 58000 defense line is gradually moving downwards. The sharp decline in Asian stock markets is a catalyst. Four tests, nothing goes wrong. This time, the conditions are most mature. Let the 58000 exam room release the results first.