律动BlockBeats|Jun 26, 2026 00:32
[Institutions: The Gold Bull Market Is Not Over, A Turning Point May Be Near]
BlockBeats News, June 26: According to a research report by CICC, gold prices have been continuously adjusting since March. International gold prices once fell below $4,000/ounce, retreating more than 25% from the early March high of $5,321/ounce. This was mainly influenced by two factors:
First, the U.S.-Iran conflict drove up oil prices and inflation, leading the market to worry about resilient U.S. inflation, which formed expectations of monetary tightening.
Second, the June FOMC meeting marked Waller's debut, which was interpreted as hawkish, intensifying concerns about monetary tightening. Waller emphasized inflation discipline, revised inflation expectations upward in the dot plot, and half of the 18 voting members supported at least one rate hike within the year.
The current market narrative suggests that the Federal Reserve's policy focus is on "controlling inflation." The futures market has already priced in one rate hike each in 2026 and 2027 by the Federal Reserve to restore the dollar's credibility. A stronger dollar has suppressed gold.
Regarding the above two logics, we believe linear extrapolation is not appropriate: U.S. inflation may have already peaked and could enter a downward trajectory in the second half of the year. Waller's debut does not necessarily mean the Federal Reserve has fully shifted to tightening; the current stance may be leaving room for future policy to return to easing.
Therefore, this round of gold price correction does not signify the end of the bull market, and a turning point may not be far off. We remain optimistic about the outlook for gold and recommend maintaining positions, buying on dips, and patiently awaiting the turning point. (Jin10)
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