Goldman Sachs Warning: AI Investment Boom Not Yet Peaked, But Market Pricing Significantly Outpaces Fundamentals

According to a report by Jinse Finance on June 24, Goldman Sachs stated in its latest research report that the artificial intelligence investment boom has not yet peaked, but the market's pricing of its future returns is clearly running ahead of macroeconomic realization. The firm noted that the proportion of U.S. tech investment relative to GDP has surpassed the peak during the internet bubble of the 1990s, and the capital expenditure expectations of hyperscale cloud providers for 2026 have been raised by nearly 80% over the past six months. This wave of investment continues to drive revenue and profit growth across the semiconductor, cloud computing, server, and data center supply chains, pushing AI-related assets to achieve high valuations. However, unlike the late 1990s, the current risks no longer primarily stem from valuation expansion detached from fundamentals but increasingly from the market's expectations of sustained high profit margins and high capital returns over the long term. Goldman Sachs believes that the core contradiction of the AI rally is intensifying: while fundamentals remain strong, the market has already priced in too much of the future gains.