American conspiracy, American narrative logic The United States may never have a financial crisis again, not because the foam no longer exists, not because the American economy has suddenly become healthy, not because China has come to help, but because the United States has found a new way to deal with the crisis. This approach may sound absurd, but it could be very effective, just two words called 'dream'. I'm not joking, this dream is not an ordinary dream, nor is it an emotional hype in the mouths of retail investors, but a capital system that is taking shape. Its surface features SpaceX going public, AI giants lining up for IPOs, Musk talking about Mars, OpenAI talking about AGI, Anthropic talking about cybersecurity, and the US government discussing investing in AI companies. But if you only look at these events themselves, at how much they raise, how much they value, and how much they open up, then you may not see the real big picture. What is truly worth considering is not how much SpaceX will rise after going public, nor when OpenAI will go public, nor is Anthropic's valuation high or low, but rather the formation of a new USD return mechanism behind these events. In other words, the United States may be doing a very bold thing now, using AI and space, the two most difficult to falsify, easiest to talk about the future, and most capable of carrying valuation super narratives, to suck the global surplus dollars back into the US market, into American companies, and back into the future balance sheet of the United States. This is the core of what I want to talk about today: why did the financial crisis break out? On the surface, it seems that the market is out of control, the leverage has exploded, asset prices have fallen, and banks have problems. But on a deeper level, before many financial crises really broke out, there was a process of people trying to pierce the foam, especially the decision makers such as the Federal Reserve. It is not that he cannot see the foam, but he must prick it with the interest rate before the foam is completely out of control. Why do we need to do it? Because it broke early, at most it was a liquidity crisis, assets fell, institutions exploded, and the market panicked. But as long as the underlying inflation remains low, the Federal Reserve can lower interest rates, release funds, implement quantitative easing, rescue banks, buy bonds, and rebuild the system. In the past decades, the standard action of the United States to deal with the crisis is basically this logic: first raise interest rates, take the initiative to suppress demand, and puncture the foam; When the foam bursts, the economy declines, and inflation comes down, we will cut interest rates to rescue the market, and use cheaper money to lift the market again. But this gameplay has a very important premise, which is low inflation. Only when inflation is low, the Federal Reserve dares to release water; Only when inflation is controllable, will the credit of the US dollar not be completely doubted due to printing money. But the problem now is that the United States is no longer the environment of low inflation, low interest rates, and low debt pressure that it used to be. Today's United States has a very high debt scale, a very high fiscal deficit, and a high asset valuation. The most troublesome thing is that inflation expectations have not really died. If you continue to raise interest rates now, the foam may burst immediately; But if you print money crazily after the foam bursts, high inflation and printing money, the dollar credit will go wrong. So this is the most awkward part of the United States now: it cannot easily raise interest rates, because once interest rates are raised, high leverage assets in the US stock market, commercial real estate, private credit, and fiscal interest pressure may all go wrong together; But it cannot easily cut interest rates, because once a rate cut is made, inflation may rise again, commodities may continue to rise, the US dollar may be sold off, and overseas countries may be even less willing to buy US bonds. In other words, the US's past cycle of "increasing interest rates to prick the foam and reducing interest rates to save the foam" is becoming increasingly difficult to play. Then what should we do? If the problem cannot be solved by interest rates, it can only be solved by storytelling. If we cannot crush the money with interest rate hikes, we must use a bigger dream to absorb the money. If the foam cannot be punctured directly, it is better to change the way to slowly remove the foam from the old foam, and create a new larger container to put the surplus money in the world. This new container is AI plus space. The most crucial thing in the recent round of the US capital market is not how much a certain company has risen, but the rhythm of super IPOs has begun to emerge. SpaceX will be launched first, and the market is still waiting for AI giants such as Anthropic and OpenAI. One represents more rational enterprise level AI, and the other represents the widest public perception and AGI imagination. If the US government starts discussing holding equity in AI companies, then this is no longer the market for ordinary technology stocks. This is a re binding between the capital market, industrial policies, and national credit. Many people watching SpaceX's IPO will only say, 'Oh, how much funding has been raised, how much valuation has been made, Musk has become rich again, and retail investors have gone crazy again.' But I don't think just looking at these numbers makes much sense. The truly important aspect of SpaceX is not how much money it has raised on its own, but rather whether it has tested a question: Is today's global capital willing to pay a sufficiently outrageous valuation for a sufficiently large future narrative? Would you be willing to give money to a space story that may take 20, 30, or even longer to be realized? Are you willing to believe that Mars, the moon, Starlink, space data centers, global connectivity, AI computing power, and these things will become a new super asset category in the future? If the answer is yes, then things are completely different. Because this indicates that the United States has found a new black hole in the US dollar. This black hole needs to absorb more than just the internal adjustment funds of the US stock market. Of course, the US stock market will also be affected internally: when a super IPO comes out, institutions need to subscribe, funds need to be allocated, and retail investors need to chase new opportunities, they will definitely sell some old assets to exchange positions. In this way, old technology stocks, old growth stocks and old high valuation assets will objectively have some callback pressure, which is equivalent to giving the old system a little foam.