Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|Jun 18, 2026 05:38
Please provide today's analysis on options, sentiment, and individual stocks First, let's take a look at two emotional indicators The latest AAII investor survey shows that the long ratio is 36.6%, the short ratio is 39.4%, and the neutral ratio is 24.1%. Compared to last week, bullish sentiment has rebounded, with only 30.4% bullish and 47.7% bearish. The Panic Greed Index is now 33, still in the Fear range, slightly better than 31 a week ago, but far behind 61 (Greek) a month ago. What does putting these two data together mean? The market sentiment has indeed been hit by today's hawkish Warsh press conference, but it has not yet reached extreme panic. If it continues to decline in the next few days, the Panic Greed Index may slide towards the extreme risk range of 15-20. I don't think it will fall below 10. If it falls below 10, the S&P will experience a pullback of more than 10%. I don't think there will be a pullback of 5-10%, which is usually a good buying point in history. The specific trend of the market After the FOMC news came out, the S&P quickly fell about 100 points during trading, from 7500 to 7400. The Gamma structure provides a noteworthy signal. The main Gamma exposure is densely distributed between 7400 and 7600, with 7400 being a relatively strong support level. Near the closing and after hours, futures have shown a slight rebound at this level. The distribution of option trading volume shows that despite the sharp decline in the market, the vast majority of option trading volume is concentrated at higher strike prices, with 7500 strike prices exceeding 200000 contracts and 7600 strike prices approaching 250000 contracts. This indicates that the main funds have not given up their optimism about the future due to today's decline, and the market is still laying out for the position of 7600. VIX needs to focus on one location: 20 This morning, the monthly VIX option expired, and the VIX hit its largest daily bullish line in 5 to 6 trading days, reaching the upper resistance level. The Gamma values around 16 and 17 have expired, and the next critical negative Gamma is concentrated at the 20 level. This position is the watershed for determining the direction next. If VIX cannot effectively break through 20 tomorrow, the market is likely to experience a rebound. If the VIX stabilizes above 20, it may quickly soar to 22 or even 25, at which point the market will face a deeper pullback. If VIX falls below 17, it is expected to fall all the way to around 15. Several stocks worth paying attention to HOOD rose 8.75% against the trend today, closing at $105.17, effectively stabilizing at the psychologically and technically significant position of $100. The trading volume of options exploded between 100 and 120, with an exercise price of $110 exceeding 100000 contracts and $120 exceeding 50000 contracts. The Gamma structure clearly leans towards long positions. This stock has completed a 5-month bottoming period, which is a relatively solid long-term breakthrough logic. After the price stabilizes within a narrow range around 100 and the moving average keeps up, a retracement to $100 would be a good opportunity to re-enter the market, with a medium-term target of 150 to 160. Another detail worth noting is that HOOD's previous trend was often tied to Bitcoin, but in the past two months, Bitcoin has fallen from 80000 to 60000 and is undergoing a double bottom test. However, HOOD has been able to counter the trend and strengthen, indicating that it now demonstrates strong independence and is not solely supported by encrypted narratives. INTC has a big news tonight. Reuters reported that Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday that Apple had agreed to cooperate with Intel to design and manufacture chips in the United States. After this news came out, Intel's night market had already surged to $130. On the technical side, the progress is quite clean, with perfect breakthroughs, retracements, and further breakthroughs, forming a textbook level bull flag pattern. As long as we can stand above 130 tomorrow, the next goal is to reach a new high of 150 to 160. This news is consistent with the logic behind Google's previous order of 3 million TPU chips from Intel. Intel's OEM business is gradually winning heavyweight customers, and the story of breaking TSMC's monopoly is being verified in reality, not just in PPT. Considering that the 18A process has just entered the risk production stage, Intel's current technological strength is supported by substantial industry progress, rather than simply emotional speculation. What do you think overall Today's decline did not plunge the market into extreme pessimism. On the contrary, the long ratio of AAII has rebounded compared to last week, and the large option orders are still betting on 7600. These signals combined indicate that there is fear among retail investors, but the position of Smart Money has not yet shifted significantly towards defense. Next, focus on two things: whether VIX can stand at 20 and whether the gamma support of 7400 can withstand it. If we hold on, there is a high probability of a rebound coming.
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