Spain vs Cape Verde: A 0-0 draw once again sounds the alarm - the market is never 100% sure. Before the match, Polymarket gave Spain a winning rate of about 92% and a draw probability of only 6%. What about the result? The two sides fought 0-0. Spain ranks second in the world in FIFA rankings, while Cape Verde only ranks 67th (slightly higher than China's 91st place); The team's net worth is as high as 1.22 billion euros, while Cape Verde's is only 54.5 million euros, a difference of more than 20 times. The disparity in strength to this extent seems unquestionable. However, some people heavily invested nearly $1 million (precisely $990000) in Spain's victory, just to earn the seemingly "stable" tens of thousands of dollars in profits. Under the temptation of high probability, everything appears incredibly safe. The result was a disastrous defeat: nearly a million dollars evaporated instantly. This kind of plot is repeatedly played out in the investment market (stocks, cryptocurrencies, options, prediction markets, etc.). There was in the past, there is now, and there will still be in the future. No matter how high the probability is, it never equals certainty. Tail risks always lurk in the shadows. The so-called 'high probability, low return' guaranteed profits are often the most hidden and dangerous traps. The person who can truly walk the long run is never someone who tries to catch every "almost certain" person, but someone who always maintains reverence for uncertainty.