Morgan Stanley lowers crude oil price expectations due to increased supply following US Iran agreement According to Golden Finance, on June 16th, Morgan Stanley significantly lowered its oil price forecast for the next few quarters, as the United States and Iran reached a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats stated in the report that the spot Brent crude oil price, which serves as the benchmark price for physical trading, is expected to average $90 per barrel in the third quarter, up from the previous expectation of $100; The average price for the last three months is expected to be $80 per barrel, a decrease of $15. They said that the process of production recovery in the Middle East has been advanced by one to two weeks. They said, "There are still many issues that need to be negotiated, and key risks still exist, but for now, this is a crucial step towards easing the conflict and exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz." They were referring to the agreement scheduled to be signed by Washington and Tehran in Switzerland on Friday. After the announcement of the agreement, oil prices have fallen to their lowest point since March, although the text of the agreement has not yet been released, and traders, shippers, and producers still have great doubts about how to implement it specifically to restore waterway transportation. The aforementioned analyst pointed out that it may take "several weeks" for tanker transportation to resume, as it requires clearing mines, rebuilding the business confidence of ship owners and insurance companies, and returning previously transferred vessels to the region. They added that production is expected to gradually increase from mid July. "We assume that 50% of the lost production will recover by September, 80% by December, and the rest will recover by early 2027