PalBTC Market Morning Post - June 16th Figure 1: Daily chart 1) It has been rising for 5 consecutive days, and the trend of the market is changing so quickly. At present, I cannot see the end of the decline and the end of the bull market before the FOMC results, which is unrealistic. So currently, it is still rebounding and may even oscillate around 68-60 for a period of time (the red line in the graph is an expectation). My point of view is still short-term, pay attention to the reaction here at 675. 2) ETF data is still flowing out, with a significant amount of 140 million, so this can support the short-term top view. 3) This afternoon, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike meeting is being monitored. Is Uchida a pigeon or an eagle? His press conference wording will determine the direction: If there is a suggestion that there may be another increase in October (instead of December), and the trend is bearish (indicating an acceleration in the interest rate hike path), then there is a high probability that the USD/JPY will break through 155, with a probability of about 20%; That triggered global risk aversion, and both the US stock market and Crypto were simultaneously hit. If we maintain a gradual approach without a predetermined timetable, there is a high probability that the Japanese yen will rise and fall, with a probability of about 60%. However, this interest rate hike will not have a significant impact on the market and pricing. Figure 2: Hour chart 1) Last night, the group around 67 called for short selling, and here it directly came down to H1 bullish support for ob. At present, this is the support position of yesterday's oscillation. 2) This is a starting point for observation, as ML's Monday low is at 653 waiting to be plundered. So it's not a good choice to go long directly at this position, it needs to be observed and confirmed. But once it falls below 653, I think we need to test the bullish trend of 64 H4. Then you can focus on the rebound around 662 and continue to do short positions.