律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|Jun 16, 2026 02:39
[Institutional Outlook on the Bank of Japan Decision: Rate Hike is Certain but Hard to Reverse Yen's Weakness, Halting Bond Purchase Reduction May Be on the Agenda] BlockBeats News, June 16 — Ahead of the upcoming Bank of Japan interest rate decision, the market has reached a strong consensus on a rate hike. Meanwhile, some institutions believe the Bank of Japan will conduct a mid-term assessment of its bond purchase reduction plan during this meeting. A summary of major institutional views is as follows: Goldman Sachs: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates at this meeting, aligning with consensus and market pricing. Subsequently, the central bank is likely to maintain a pace of approximately one rate hike every six months. MUFG: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates this week, with another hike anticipated later this year. Given that a 25-basis-point rate hike has already been fully priced in by the market, this move alone is unlikely to reverse the yen's depreciation trend. Former Chief Economist of the Bank of Japan, Kameda Kiyosaku: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates at this meeting. The peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely to alter the expectation of two rate hikes by the central bank this year. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is expected to reaffirm the central bank's commitment to further rate hikes but will avoid providing clear hints on the timing of the next hike. QT Expectations: Mizuho Bank: The Bank of Japan is expected to conduct a mid-term assessment of its bond purchase reduction plan during this meeting. It may maintain the current reduction plan unchanged until January to March next year, with a potential pause or slowdown in the reduction of monthly bond purchases from April to June and beyond. Deutsche Securities: If the Bank of Japan decides to halt the reduction of monthly bond purchases, it must provide a thorough explanation. Should the Bank of Japan simultaneously decide to raise interest rates and stop reducing bond purchases, regardless of its true intentions, the market and the public may interpret this as a "political deal" with the government. If the Bank of Japan halts the reduction of monthly bond purchases, the impact on liquidity and the overall market is expected to be neutral to moderately positive, particularly in avoiding a sharp tightening of liquidity.
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