[Capital Economics: Fragile US-Iran Agreement Expected to Reduce Risks of Negative Macro and Market Impacts] According to a report by Jinse Finance on June 15, Capital Economics stated that although the temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran is fragile, it is expected to reduce the risk of more severe macroeconomic and market scenarios in the coming months. The institution's Chief Economist, Neil Shearing, predicts that oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz will take time to return to normal, as tankers are not yet in position and production and refining facilities have not resumed full operations. The agreement will not prevent short-term inflation from rising, nor will it shield global economic growth in the third quarter from being impacted. "The global economy may face a period of below-trend growth in the third quarter, rather than falling into a recession," Capital Economics added. However, by the end of 2026 or 2027, GDP growth rates in regions outside the Gulf countries are expected to recover to the pre-war level of 3%.