12 hours. From 'bigger bombing, Iran is done' to 'discussion approved, cancellation of strikes'. If you are short based on Trump's first tweet within 12 hours - BTC pulled from 62500 to 63167, gold skyrocketed to $30- you have already liquidated. This is not the first time, nor will it be the last time. There is an iron law to Trump's trading model: the time window between his threat and his withdrawal threat is the vacuum period of market pricing. During these 12 hours, any position based on 'will continue to play' is betting that Trump will not change his mind - and the probability of Trump changing his mind, historical data shows, is far higher than the market is willing to admit. Even more intriguing is another signal that emerged on the same day: CME data shows that the market has pushed the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates from December this year to January next year. This means that the market is pricing two things at the same time - the 'positive that war may ease' and the 'positive that interest rate hikes may be delayed'. BTC rose 1% under the double bullish trend. To be honest, the price hasn't risen enough - this indicates that after several months of continuous selling, the bulls are so tired that they can't even push good news.