UBS: There is an upward risk in the expectation of the European Central Bank raising interest rates twice this year According to a report by Golden Finance, on June 11th, UBS analyzed that it is expected that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% at its meeting on June 11th, which is basically consistent with current market expectations. The European Central Bank does not consider it necessary to significantly raise interest rates by 50 basis points. After the last meeting of the European Central Bank, some media outlets quoted sources from the ECB as saying that the ECB may have to raise interest rates "at least twice" this year, which actually implies the possibility of raising interest rates three times. The market has partially digested this scenario (expected to raise interest rates by 56.3 basis points by December 2026). Therefore, we acknowledge that there is an upward risk in the forecast of the European Central Bank raising interest rates twice, each by 25 basis points. We believe that the European Central Bank is unlikely to send a strong signal regarding its interest rate decision in July. However, if the signal indicates that the next interest rate hike will take place in July, we need to assess two scenarios: one is to prioritize the September rate hike while adhering to the European Central Bank's prediction of only raising interest rates twice; The second is to consider the July interest rate hike as one of the three interest rate hikes. At present, we maintain an open attitude.