律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|Jun 11, 2026 05:40
What will happen to the US stock market in June? Summary of analyst opinions: Short term volatility intensifies, but the medium to long term is still worth looking forward to According to BlockBeats, on June 11th, after a brief frenzy since June, the US stock market has been declining all the way. The S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 5% since hitting a high of 7620 on the 2nd. Under the continuous market downturn, investors have begun to shake their belief in the "eternal bull market" of the US stock market. Regarding this, how do analysts view the June market trend? BlockBeats has summarized it as follows: In its latest podcast, the well-known investment research program Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) pointed out through cycle analysis that as of around June 8, 2026, multiple short - to medium-term cycles of major US stock indices have highly synchronized to form a top cluster, currently in a clear top alignment window, indicating that from June onwards, they will face downward pressure from the late summer solstice autumn (to October November), especially in the technology and semiconductor sectors, where the synchronization is strongest. There has also been a deviation in the technical aspect of the Cycle RSI. Overall, it is recommended to remain cautious in the short term, and there may be fluctuations or correction in the market; And the financial sector is one of the few that still maintains a bullish cycle. Morgan Stanley released a mid-term market research report in mid May, stating that driven by strong profit growth, the US stock market will lead the global market upward, and the S&P 500 index is expected to rise 12% in the next 12 months. But the report also reminds that as companies raise more debt for AI spending, the increase in supply in the corporate bond market may put pressure on credit performance. Meanwhile, the expectation of slowing inflation and lower US interest rates will put pressure on the US dollar in the coming months, but the recovery may begin in 2027. According to a research report by Fidelity, recent geopolitical conflicts, rising oil prices, and hot inflation data have led to an increase in yields, triggering a pullback in technology stocks and indices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have experienced significant declines, putting pressure on semiconductor and AI related sectors. The VIX volatility has increased, and with reference to the lackluster performance of the US stock market in June, it can still be considered as normal profit taking or seasonal adjustment at present. KOL Herman Jin, a well-known US stock, kept reminding AI of the risk of semiconductor low PE foam in the bull market. He warned that the current market's optimistic pricing of matching model income with capital expenditures is unrealistic, and that short-term diversification models may erode growth expectations, ultimately reshaping the industry through costs and exacerbating wealth concentration.
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