degentrading|Jun 11, 2026 03:00
Pre mkt thoughts - 11 Jun 26
Yields up, with US 10Y at 4.55 and 30Y at 5.03. We had a relatively benign CPI yst and the market was initially constructive before dribbling down into the close.
ORCL earnings was also not well received by investors as it signalled for 1. MORE capex and 2. Equity raise. As a result ORCL is down 10% in the overnight market. At this price point, fundamentals are good (especially if bullish on compute) but ST wise, there is pressure on the price given that the company itself is selling stock!
In asian markets, KOSPI and NKY are both just down ~1% today. This is EXTREMELY muted and very strong given what happened overnight in the US markets. We also know that there is leverage within KOSPI - so why does the mkt remain so firm? It could be divine protection ? I kid. But in all honesty, the strength surprises me and i think liquidity improves from here.
In memory land, SNDK is outperforming! Looking at NAND prices, this is in line...$285A is strong as well. Given the release of Fable, the direct impact is that memory usage looks to be going up. How much of that is already discounted? I think thats where the alpha is.
If we look into all the different sectors. We can see the difference between buying sector leaders. In neoclouds, NBIS has shown remarkable price resilience vs the rest - thank you leopold plot armour!
Asset wise, there is also continued weakness in metals like XAU which made a new local low yst. All this point towards draining liquidity, perhaps on the back of restarting love taps in the middle east?
Going into today, i would expect the market to trade much firmer as the SPCX IPO liquidity suck gets fully resolved by the market. I had thought this would have happened yesterday already but that was not the case with the market limping into the close.
Good luck!(degentrading)
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