Today's stock market summary: The market is creating panic, but my plan has not changed. Let's analyze why there is no need to panic. 7100-7200 is still my core expected range, and I think the final adjusted price will be around 7120, with a concentrated negative impact around June 18th. First, let's talk about what happened today S&P closed down 1.58%, while the Nasdaq QQQ fell below the $700 Put Wall. The CPI data is out, with an overall CPI of 4.2% year-on-year in May, reaching a new high since April 2023, and a core CPI of 2.9%. Trump said, 'We hit them hard yesterday and will continue today,' and the geopolitical risks have substantially escalated. Oracle's after hours financial report fell short of expectations on both ends, and it also announced plans to issue 40 billion yuan in debt and equity, adding insult to injury. Today when I opened my account and saw a lot of red, I believe many friends feel uncomfortable. To be honest, I am the same. But rather than staring at the floating losses in my account, I would like to talk to everyone about what this round of decline is really about and why I don't think it means the end of the bull market. After identifying the reasons for the decline, the sense of panic often diminishes significantly. For those who still have cash on hand, this means there may be better buying opportunities in the coming weeks; For friends who have already been trapped, don't deny your long-term logic just because of short-term fluctuations. At least in my opinion, 7630 points is definitely not the finish line for this year's S&P 500. My goal for the end of the year remains in the range of 8000-8200 points, and my view of seeing 9000 points by the end of next year has not changed. AI capital expenditures have not changed. The investment plans of large-scale cloud providers have not changed. The reasoning requirements have not changed. The digital upgrade of enterprises has not changed. What has changed is only short-term liquidity and market sentiment. Always remember this. First, let me express my judgment My psychological goal is to establish a bottom for the S&P around 7100 to 7200 and for the Nasdaq around 27500 to 28000. Today is already very close to this range. My expectation is a 5-10% drop, starting from 7630, a pullback of about 6% to 7150, and around 8% to 7000. I waited until the end of March 2026 for 6150 to retrace to the high point of February 2025 before this year, but 6300 rose back. In the end, I caught up with 6800. I won't be obsessed with waiting for the perfect price this time. Near 7150, if you need to make a move, make a move. According to the pyramid position method I provided, 7350 10%, 7260 20%, 7150 30%, 7000 40%, you have already received 30% of the cash. The recent decline is a gift, and the latest adjustment window is until the end of June. You have many opportunities to buy between now and the end of June, so be bold and buy at the bottom. What is the reason for today's decline Four bearish factors collided together: 1. Insufficient liquidity. SpaceX's subscription is four times oversubscribed, with 300 billion yuan of funds waiting in line for allocation on the sidelines. Institutions are still selling technology stocks to free up space. This is a temporary liquidity siphon. 2. The escalation of the US Iran situation. Trump has stated that he will continue to strike Iran, even mentioning bombing power plants and bridges. This has pushed up oil prices, further boosting CPI expectations. 3. Risk of yen arbitrage trading. Japanese media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 0.75% to 1% in June, and the closing pressure on Yen Carry Trade is quietly accumulating behind the scenes. 4. The uncertainty of Kevin Warsh. Next week, June 17th, will be the first FOMC meeting of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, and the market doesn't know what he will say, with hawkish expectations weighing down. Note that all four are temporary. There is no fundamental problem with AI. There is something important that I have observed today Today, the S&P closed down 1.58%, but 65% of its constituent stocks closed red. The bears actually did not exert any force. The main sectors that have fallen are technology stocks and semiconductors, while other sectors are holding up. This indicates that the funds have not fully fled, but are simply avoiding high-level technology positions. This is different from a true bear market signal. A true bear market is when all sectors fall together and the breadth continues to deteriorate. From the option data, bottom signals are accumulating VIX has risen by 11.82% today. According to historical data, after a single day surge of over 10%, there is an 85% chance of a rebound in the next two trading days. More importantly, SPY is building a linear triple bottom divergence on the 1-hour chart (the chart released yesterday will be released again today, Figure 1, the chart released yesterday showed two trends, saying to look at the trends of the past two days, and now it looks more like going lower), with MACD and RSI both forming divergence signals at low points. If the current position can stop the decline, it will trigger a strong bearish trap rebound. In addition, I will also pay attention to whether the RSI of the 4-hour SPY chart has oversold below 30 (Figure 2). But to be clear, this rebound does not necessarily mean an immediate trend reversal. The head, shoulder, and top structure on the 2-hour chart is still present, and it needs to be observed for energy to rebound to around 735 to 741. If the quantity does not support it, it will be building a right shoulder, followed by a wave of decline. The earliest decline will end at the end of June after the US China Federal Reserve meeting, and the latest will end at the end of June. The specific time may not be accurate, but you can follow the point I gave without looking at the time. The expected fluctuation range for SPY options tomorrow is 735.37 at the upper edge and 715.49 at the lower edge. QQ has an upper edge of 708.16 and a lower edge of 679.22. Remember these two intervals first. Panic Greed Index Now the S&P Panic Greed Index is at 28, still in the panic zone. My goal is to wait until the extreme panic range of 15 to 20. At the end of March 2026 at 6300, extreme panic reached 9, which was the best buying point. At the position of 7100 to 7200 this time, I expect the panic and greed index to be around 15 to 20, not necessarily falling below 10, because the magnitude and time of this adjustment are smaller than that one. It's still a bit short, but it's not far away. AAII updates the Investor Sentiment Survey every Wednesday, and I am still waiting for him to release the bullish/bearish ratio. I will share it later. Both PPI and the European Central Bank need to pay attention tomorrow Tomorrow morning at 8:30, PPI will be announced, and the European Central Bank will also have an interest rate decision. The euro has the highest weight in the US dollar index, and if the ECB sends a hawkish signal, US bond yields may soar again, putting additional pressure on US stocks. This afternoon, the auction of treasury bond was also bad. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds soared, causing a second blow to the stock market. We will continue to monitor this line tomorrow. Thursday and Friday are critical windows. SpaceX officially goes public on Friday, and after the listing, the allocation funds will gradually be released back, and the biggest liquidity suppression factor will begin to fade away. My own operation The 10% SPY hedge position purchased on Monday and Tuesday at 744 has not been cleared yet, and there is a high probability that it will be cleared before the Federal Reserve meeting next Wednesday. According to the pyramid warehouse plan I mentioned earlier, the first batch of 10% has been built for 7350, and the second batch of 20% for 7260 has also been completed. 7120-7150 is the bottom range of my psychological expectation, and I need to start preparing for the third batch of 30% positions in 7150. Before the macro uncertainty is eliminated on June 18th, there will be many opportunities to get on board, so don't rush to finish the bullet all at once. In addition, MRVL now has the opportunity to fill the gap around 220. Don't hesitate when you reach that position. If it falls to 220, then it will experience a 33% pullback from 323. The last pullback from December 8, 2025, when it fell from 100 to 70, was also a drop of about 30%. Considering the overall market trend, there is a high probability that this 220 gap will be filled. Oracle Financial Report This financial report is actually not bad. Revenue of 19.2 billion US dollars, higher than expected; EPS of $2.11, significantly higher than expected; IaaS revenue increased by 93% year-on-year; RPO increased by 85% year-on-year; Operating cash flow increased by 54% year-on-year. These numbers indicate that the demand for AI infrastructure is still very strong. Only subscription services and software sales have been missed, and there is still a debt and equity of 40 billion yuan to be issued. There will be short-term pressure on the software sector tomorrow. The real dilemma in the market is financing. Another thing to distinguish is that this is a short-term issue for Oracle itself, not an AI demand issue. OpenAI is advancing its IPO, which means that the previously feared bad debt risk of OpenAI in the market is diminishing, and the first party will soon be able to raise funds in the secondary market to pay the bill. Oracle's long-term logic has not been falsified, and we are still optimistic about the explosion at the end of this year. summary Many people's accounts have dropped significantly this week. Me too. I know I just said it yesterday, but the market is still falling today, so I think it's necessary to repeat it again. Everyone can think about these questions repeatedly every day. Have any of the reasons you bought these companies in the first place been falsified by today's CPI data, geopolitical conflicts, or market sentiment? No. Is Nvidia's chip still in line? Yes. Is the capital expenditure on AI infrastructure still increasing? Yes. Is the commercialization of AI accelerating? Yes. Is OpenAI pushing for an IPO? Yes. Is Anthropic also pushing for an IPO? Yes. These have not changed. The only changes are short-term liquidity, market sentiment, and macroeconomic disturbances. And these things will eventually pass. Waiting for SpaceX to go public and land. Waiting for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Wait for Kevin Warsh to complete the first FOMC meeting. Wait for the market to gradually digest these uncertainties. The market is about to restart. Many bearish factors that seem to be weighing on the market today will become a thing of the past. So my judgment on the end of the year 8000 points and the end of 2027 9000 points has not changed. This is not blindly optimistic, but based on the acceleration of AI commercialization, the continuous expansion of technology giant CapEx, and the judgment that AI infrastructure construction is still in the early stages in the next few years. If you agree that AI is still the biggest industry trend in the coming years, then this round of decline should be seen more as a risk release and a good buying opportunity, rather than the end of the bull market. Falling is a gift. Because cheap chips are always generated in panic. There are always many reasons for a decline. War, inflation, interest rate hikes, liquidity crises, IPO blood draws, and so on, it's always like this. But looking back afterwards, the best buying points often come during the most difficult times. April 2025 is like this. The same goes for the end of March 2026. This time will not be an exception either. In the next two weeks, I will not be obsessed with finding the lowest point. I will only follow the discipline to implement the pyramid stocking plan. Buy some 7350. Buy some more 7260. 7150 continue to buy. If the market really offers 7000, then thank the market for providing a safety margin. I always believe that 7630 is not the end of this bull market, and 8000 points is not the end. The AI revolution has not yet reached its end. Today's panic, looking back in the future, is likely just a stress test before the next round of uptrend begins. Get ready. Opportunities often arise during the most uncomfortable times. Bull markets never start when everyone is optimistic, they start when most people are afraid to buy.