The two logics I often use to support low crude oil prices are: The geopolitical relationship between the United States and Iran is complex and cannot be easily resolved. Without a landmark event and until all three parties find a suitable way out, the so-called settlement decline is a buying opportunity. After all, the Middle Eastern powder keg only needs a small spark to detonate at any time. This is the logic of short-term long positions Secondly, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today and oil tankers are unimpeded, global demand for replenishment will support high oil prices for at least three months to six months. This does not include the part that the demand side overbought due to concerns. And today's statement by the US Secretary of Energy to replenish inventory next year is actually setting a hard bottom for oil prices. Once oil prices fall to around 7, the demand for US strategic reserves will support the downward trend. And once it is completely liberalized, there is no longer a need for the deliberate suppression of futures and present price inversion by the financial sector in conjunction with inflation control. War type basis/near month premium will be re priced, and matching futures prices with delivery prices is also one of the price support factors. At the end of the day, oil prices will only create a golden pit when they are completely released in a physical sense, and then the huge demand for crude oil reserves and the shortage of refined oil products will be the driving force behind the rise. That moment will come, but it won't come suddenly. Just wait for the war to develop