Is SpaceX's post-IPO strategy really this predictable? Do you buy into this script? July 7 Nasdaq inclusion day: Passive funds across the U.S. will start building positions, directly clashing with the historically low free float. Two days after the Q2 earnings call, lock-up expiration: The first batch of shares unlocked seems to be 30%, but after deducting Elon Musk's personal 50% stake with a one-year absolute lock-up period, the actual selling pressure is only 10%-15%. July 'merger of equals' speculation: Musk faces a $7 billion tax burden from exercising Tesla options before August 15. Announcing a 'stock-for-stock' merger of the two companies between SpaceX's stock price peak on July 7 and the late-July earnings lock-up expiration would be a brilliant and very Musk-style capital play.