[CITIC Securities: Low Probability of Fed Rate Hike in the Short Term] CITIC Securities pointed out that in the short term, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike remains low. Market concerns about Fed tightening are primarily based on expectations, built on assumptions of persistent domestic inflation and a robust job market in the U.S. Data from CME FedWatch indicates that overseas markets expect the most likely timing for a Fed rate hike to begin in late October 2026. The current global liquidity tightening and market adjustments are early reactions to expectations of a Fed rate hike in the fourth quarter. As for the domestic bond market, increased expectations of Fed tightening are not necessarily bearish. The domestic bond market is relatively independent and has limited correlation with U.S. Treasuries. Moreover, under conditions of ample domestic liquidity, the anticipated tightening of overseas liquidity and adjustments in equity markets could potentially drive funds toward the bond market, supporting the current levels of long-term bonds. Moving forward, the 10Y government bond yield is expected to continue fluctuating around the 1.70% level. A break below 1.70% would still require the emergence of additional domestic information. (People's Financial News)