𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|6月 06, 2026 18:20
Bitcoin sitting on the U.S. govt balance sheet is actually functionally useless. Read it again: USELESS. It serves no purpose just as the gold serves no purpose. The only balance sheet that matters for the U.S. is the assets held by its citizens and businesses- the private sector who buy and sell goods/services, driving economic output growth.
I have been one of the lone voices bleating this into the void of SBR bulls who think govt ownership represents some kind of boon. But it does not. It would be a tectonic waste of capital.
Any overt movement by the U.S. govt toward an alternative monetary asset will cause others to question their commitment to the existing monetary standard and precipitate massive capital outflows from U.S. assets. This has happened in standards past. Every incentive for them favors defending dollar dominance, not weakening it.
The govt cannot reasonably capture the unrealized gains they'd see if BTC mooned because they'd have to sell it back into the private markets by the trillions. And for what? They can create their own dollars infinitely.
It is a huge waste of energy.
If the U.S. wants to be a leader in Bitcoin, it needs to ensure PRIVATE sector exposure, where it can soak up monetary expansion and drive wealth effects.
I think they'll most likely favor citizens owning price exposure through arms-length proxies like ETFs, MSTR, etc- which are held in monolithic state compliant entities who can be brought to heel and surveilled- and not in self custody BTC where holders can transact freely and engage in capital flight. The state wants to map every citizen to their assets and control every ramp in and out.
As the fiscal spiral deepens and financial repression takes center stage, the freedom of capital to choose its home will erode, reinforcing the incentives for govt to keep people away from self custody. For any potential yield curve control scenario down the road to work, the state will need enormous capital controls, which means ushering savings into the killing pens of fixed income and large govt friendly custodians. Spot BTC threatens that calculus by its very design.
@HodlMagoo @markgoodw_in @mithcoons(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)
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