看不懂的SOL|Jun 06, 2026 14:45
The vast majority of people's reasons for selling stocks are wrong, which is Howard Marks' viewpoint.
Retail investors selling stocks are mostly influenced by the "rise and fall of stock prices+emotional control", without fundamental logic:
1. Sell when the price rises, and put it in the bag for peace of mind;
2. Sell when it falls, panic and cut meat mentality.
This is strange. If we want to sell when the price rises and sell when the price falls, how can the two opposing logics hold at the same time?
Max believes that the only correct selling criterion is the 'reverse buying test':
Assuming I don't have this stock in hand, would I still be willing to buy it at the current price?
He said there are three types of situations that meet the selling criteria:
1. The fundamentals have completely deteriorated;
2. Serious foam valuation;
3. A better opportunity arises.
The above text summarizes Musk's profound insight into the "sell" behavior in investment decisions, emphasizing the need for a rational framework based on value rather than emotion.
However, I believe that although the viewpoints are brilliant, they are meaningless to the vast majority of individual investors.
I can speak from two perspectives:
1、 The rapid trading of stocks is one of their biggest characteristics. This is a double-edged sword.
If you like a stock, you can buy it immediately; Hate it, you can sell it immediately.
Have you noticed that such "efficiency" and "immediacy" are rare in reality.
If you like someone, you cannot immediately have them; I hate someone, but I can't leave them immediately.
Almost everything in work and life is like this.
It seems that only stocks have this privilege.
But 'privilege' also comes at a cost, and people are prone to mistakenly exercising this privilege. For example, the rise or fall of stocks can lead to incorrect buying and selling.
If other things also have this privilege, would the following situation occur?
For example, if your child, like stocks, can buy and sell at will, perhaps one of his mischievousness or rebellion will make you "sell" him.
Similar to fluctuations in marriage, work, housing prices, etc., if you have the privilege of stocks, you may quickly "sell" them.
2、 Stocks are not entirely equal to their underlying value.
Stocks basically have two elements:
a、 Partial ownership of the corresponding company;
b、 The temporary pricing of this right by the market.
The value of ownership and market pricing are often different.
But how many people have the ability to discover the true value of a company?
So, all of Max's discussions revolve around the above two elements.
Returning to my topic:
Max's viewpoint is correct, but it is meaningless to the vast majority of people.
Because his viewpoint has two underlying assumptions:
1. Do you think buying stocks means buying a company.
2. You can estimate the true value of a company.
The former requires mental effort, while the latter requires intelligence (expertise+insight).
People who possess both of these qualities are actually extremely rare.
So, stock trading is not easy and only suitable for a few people.
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