Had AI simulate the history of the 2022 mining crash, and it seems like the bottom this time might land around $50K. Highly recommend the long-term bottom-fishing data from crypto OG @bitfish and the Bitcoin monitoring site he created: fuckbtc.com. Key data from the 2022 bear market simulation: 1. During the last bear market (end of 2022), when Bitcoin dropped to $15,500, some high-end mining rigs on the market did indeed fall below their shutdown price (above $16,000). However, the top-tier models still had shutdown prices below $16,000. 2. Top mining rigs of 2022: Antminer S19 XP (shutdown price $11,900), Whatsminer M50S (shutdown price $14,400), and Antminer S19 Pro (shutdown price $16,400). The S19 Pro was the dominant "king" of mainstream rigs, accounting for a significant portion of the network's hash rate. 3. In early November 2022 (before the FTX collapse), the total network hash rate hit a then-record high of 273 EH/s. As BTC dropped to $15,500, the hash rate plunged to around 220 EH/s by the end of December. In just over a month, the network lost about 15% to 20% of its hash rate. Looking at this bear market, if BTC drops below $50K, it’ll hit the miners’ capitulation price, and 75% of machines will shut down. If the total network hash rate rapidly declines at that point, it’s almost certainly the bottom. Some people might think every cycle has a major institution or exchange blowing up. Will it be MicroStrategy this time? Based on yesterday’s simulation, even in the most extreme scenario where Bitcoin drops to the cost price of the latest mining rigs ($30,000), MicroStrategy still wouldn’t go bankrupt. So, the likelihood of a massive liquidation risk this cycle is low. A more reasonable entry point would be around $55,000 or when the hash rate drops by more than 15%.