Phyrex|Jun 03, 2026 21:41
Although I don't think what Trump said is true, I can see that the United States and Iran are avoiding further expansion of the war, and the Strait of Hormuz is the weight of the war. The United States blockades Iranian ports, and Iran blockades Hormuz, but Hormuz is not Iranian.
Today, a friend and I suggested that the United States may have intentionally raised oil prices to devalue the US dollar. I strongly disagree with this viewpoint. Indeed, when oil prices rise to $150, it means that less oil can be bought for $1, and it can be said that the US dollar has depreciated relative to oil.
But US debt, wages, taxes, military expenditure, social security, medical insurance and treasury bond interest are all denominated in US dollars, not delivered by oil. The United States owes $150 and does not only need to deliver one barrel of oil just because oil prices rise to $150. The United States is not repaying debts with oil, but with dollars.
Moreover, high oil prices are not good for net profit in the United States. The United States still imports a large amount of crude oil, especially the different types of oil needed by refineries. The United States is a major oil producing country, but at the same time, it is also a super consumer country. The high oil prices generate profits for shale oil, energy companies, and some export chains, while the costs are borne by gasoline, diesel, aviation, logistics, agriculture, manufacturing, and ordinary consumers.
So high oil prices are not the perfect tool for the United States to plunder the world, but rather a double-edged sword.
Although it can hit energy importers such as China, Europe, Japan, and India, it will also push up the inflation of the United States itself. The inflation data in the past month has clearly rebounded, and after inflation rises, it will be more difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the interest pressure on the US Treasury will also be more difficult to ease.
So $150 in oil prices may not necessarily be a cure for US finances, but rather a poison. So I think Trump will not keep the oil price high for a long time either from the perspective of the mid-term elections or the need for the stock market to rise. At least at this stage, high oil prices are equivalent to Trump digging his own grave.
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