Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)|5月 28, 2026 14:34
Based on reporting and initial sources, the proposed deal sound like near total capitulation to Iran: * Only a 60 day ceasefire extension. * The US considers Lebanon part of the ceasefire, along with Iranian proxies (Hezbollah and Houthi) * Iran would commit to opening up the Strait and removing mines in the first 30 days. * US would lift blockade. * Strait would be 'unrestricted' *during* the 60-day period but there would be available 'Iranian service fees' (tolls by a different name). * Iran would not currently commit to there being no tolls after the 60-days. * The deal has a "framework" for how and when nuclear discussions would take place, but does not have long term commitments today. * Iran agrees to a non-binding MOU that they would "not pursue a nuclear weapon" - but no direct enforcement terms, or restrictions at this time. * Iran would agree to a pause on enrichment efforts *during* the MOU for broader nuclear talks. For some terms, sources disagreed on final language or if the clause had made it into the final MOU, these were: * Iran would not move the nuclear material at this time (some sources thought China holding it was in the final discussion, most did not) * The US would unfreeze and return Iranian assets with half before the Strait opens, half at end of MOU term. * The US would agree to review and phase out Iranian sanctions "over time" in line with MOU compliance. There was also at least one claim that: * Separately a handshake commitment that the US would provide rebuilding payments to Iran, but framed as "business and development investment" which Trump would 'promote' Hard to see this as anything but every Iranian term being met, and them receiving large payments just to even talk about the nuclear material? Gives up nearly all US leverage BEFORE the bulk of the nuclear talks - all for a pinky promise.(Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth))
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