May 27th US Stock Summary: S&P hits new historic high, but only a few have risen today - What is the market structure saying Today, the S&P 500 closed at 7520. This is a trading day where the index is rising and individual stocks are falling. The number of rising and falling companies is almost evenly split, and the financial sector is weak throughout the day, indicating an unhealthy market breadth. Today's macro background At one point during the trading session, there were rumors of a US Iran peace memorandum stating that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, the US would lift its naval blockade, and WTI crude oil prices plummeted by over 5%. Subsequently, the White House denied the relevant reports, stating that the information was "completely fabricated". The rapid reversal from risk on to risk off within a few hours also explains why the market fluctuated violently and had a chaotic direction today. What really needs attention: tomorrow's PCE data One hour before the opening on Thursday, the core PCE, GDP, and durable goods orders were simultaneously announced. The previous PCE report was the highest inflation reading since May 2023. The market currently expects core PCE to increase by 0.28% month on month. If the data exceeds expectations, tomorrow will be an extremely volatile trading day. More importantly, the market has begun to reprice the path of 'higher for longer', and even some interest rate curves have begun to imply the possibility of a re rate hike in 2027. Under such macro pressure, the S&P is still at a historic high, which itself indicates how extreme the current market sentiment structure is. Goldman Sachs raised its target price today Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7600 points to 8000 points, citing profit growth as the source of all upward momentum this year. Goldman Sachs also pointed out that the high valuation concentration characteristic that historically marked the end of bull markets is currently almost invisible. If EPS reaches $400 in 2027, given a 22 times P/E ratio, the theoretical limit of S&P is 8800 points. The most important structural signal today Market liquidity is quietly narrowing. According to data tracked by Goldman Sachs, the top-level liquidity of the S&P 500 has fallen back to the low range of the past year. The index is still reaching new highs, but the actual carrying capacity is not as loose as it appears on the surface. There is also pressure on the timing. On the last two trading days of this month, pension funds are expected to have approximately $20 billion worth of US stock positions to rebalance. The absolute amount alone may not be large, but in the current environment of thin liquidity and highly concentrated institutional positions, the marginal impact may be significantly amplified. Another easily overlooked change is the acceleration of index inclusion rules. Russell recently adjusted its rules, and new IPOs that meet the market value threshold can be included in the index as early as the fifth trading day; Nasdaq has previously introduced a similar mechanism, allowing some new stocks to quickly enter the index 15 days after listing. At the time point, both rule adjustments occurred before the revival of the large IPO cycle. The problem is that if trillions of new companies are quickly included in the index in the early stages of listing in the future, passive funds may be forced to continue buying during the period when prices are not yet stable. At the same time, the weights of the original constituent stocks in the index will be diluted, and some sectors may face pressure from passive fund redistribution. This may not immediately change the trend, but it is likely to become a variable worth continuously observing in the changes of market liquidity structure in the coming weeks. So in the future, we still need to focus on a few key time points: SpaceX's listing on June 12th, the Federal Reserve meeting on June 18th, and OPEX week. Plate structure: Money is becoming increasingly concentrated Leading the decline today: Energy -1.15%, Software IGV -0.8%, Finance -0.82%, Gold -1.25%. Leading gains: Apple+0.78%, Google, Meta, Tesla, Amazon drive the strengthening of the communication and consumer non essential goods sectors. Goldman Sachs' judgment is very direct: single momentum stocks chase high prices with low cost-effectiveness, and if the market wants to break through in the future, it is more likely to require bearish stampede driven by defensive or lagging sectors. At present, the short positions in the healthcare sector have reached their highest level in 30 years, and utilities and essential consumer goods are also close to historical percentiles. The risk of short selling in these sectors continues to accumulate. After hours financial report SNOW surged 35% after trading, with revenue increasing by 33% year-on-year and RPO increasing by 38% year-on-year. At the same time, it announced a commitment of $6 billion in AI computing power expenditure to AWS over the next five years. The market is buying the entry valuation of enterprise AI landing. The MRVL financial report itself is strong, with a revenue beat and Q2 guidance of+35% year-on-year. The management emphasizes that the growth rate will continue to accelerate every quarter of FY27. But after the market opened, MRVL rose first and then fell, indicating that MRVL is no longer a stock with low expectations. What the market needs to see is a higher dimension of exceeding expectations, not just a steady beat. After NBIS closed, it was reported that Leopold had bought 5% of the shares, causing the stock price to rise by 8%. Meta announced the launch of a paid subscription layer, with Instagram Plus priced at $3.99 per month, Facebook Plus priced at $3.99 per month, WhatsApp Plus priced at $2.99 per month, and Meta AI's paid plan up to $19.99 per month. This is the most direct cash flow path for the company to hedge billions of AI capital expenditures. After the news came out, the market reaction lagged behind, and after complete digestion, it briefly surged to around $640 after the market closed. technical aspect Today, the market rebounded strongly after accurately hitting the 748.50 support level, verifying the effectiveness of this position. MACD shows a bearish crossover near a historical high, and caution is needed in history when this signal appears at this position. In terms of option structure, 750 points is currently the most critical threshold, with a large amount of Gamma accumulated in the range of 750 to 760 above. If it falls below 750, the Gamma below will transform into a downward gravitational force, attracting prices to continue testing lower support. Keep holding on to 750 and continue watching 755 and 760. S&P is currently in the process of an 8-week bullish streak on the weekly chart. Historical data shows that after triggering this level of momentum signal, the 3-month forward average return rate is 9.5%, and all 52 weeks have closed up. But the short positions in the entire market are at multi-year historical highs, and the bearish fuel is still there. Another emotional signal worth paying attention to: Trump publicly praised Meguiar Light as the "best company". Historical patterns show that when this level of public endorsement occurs, it often corresponds to a temporary emotional high point of concentrated influx of retail investors. If Micron starts to rebound, the semiconductor index SMH will follow suit, thereby putting pressure on the S&P and Nasdaq. Summary: The market structure today is very clear: funds are increasingly concentrated in a few high certainty targets. The overall liquidity is narrowing, and institutions are afraid to diversify their money into traditional sectors that are sensitive to macro factors. They are only willing to invest in core directions with ample imagination and clear catalysts. Most sectors are in a passive digestion state, with AI hardware and space sectors being the few directions actively pursued by funds. This pattern will not change in the short term, but the increasing concentration of funds itself is also a risk signal. The direction of the next round of rotation may appear in lagging sectors with a severe accumulation of short positions, after the congestion of AI hardware and data center sectors decreases. Tomorrow's PCE data is the most important single variable of this week. Good data, continue with the forced logic. The data difference will prolong the duration of high-level oscillations. Attention should be paid to mobile profit taking when holding high positions in AI hardware to avoid profit loss during sector rotation.