Westpac: RBNZ to hold OCR at 2.25% today; market expects no change. Iran war fuel spike pushes NZ CPI/inf >4%, expected elevated through most of 2026; Q2 CPI first test for spillover. 2026 GDP cut to 1.8%-2.0% (vs 2.8% in Feb); unemployment to ~5.5% y.e. OCR terminal ~3.2%; Dec-2026 OCR ~2.8% → implies 2-3 hikes this year. MPC split on timing not direction; Westpac cites limited second-round inf evidence, high war-duration uncertainty, and risk of premature tightening if slowdown deepens.(金十数据)