Why did the US military briefly open fire on the progress of the US Iran negotiations? 1. Firstly, it should be true that the most crucial aspect of yesterday's public information is that in addition to Pakistan, Qatar and Oman have also participated in the negotiation and mediation process. 1) Iran's Chief Negotiator and Foreign Minister Discuss Potential US Iran Agreement with Qatar Prime Minister in Doha; According to informed officials, the Doha talks mainly revolve around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, and the release of frozen funds discussed by the Governor of the Iranian Central Bank. The transfer of Iran's highest level negotiating team to Doha indicates that it has indeed entered the stage of "closing talks". 2) The delegations of Oman and Iran discussed a set of principles for managing freedom of navigation in Hormuz in accordance with international law, and emphasized the need to ensure the security of shipping, trade, and supply chains. This indicates that the Strait issue has shifted from political slogans to discussions on technical texts and implementation mechanisms. Oman is not the main mediator, but it is a natural party in the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, as Oman and Iran are located on opposite sides of the strait, and Iran has repeatedly expressed its intention to coordinate and manage the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. 2. The differences still exist and are not small, such as the two messages last night (Figure 1). The resolution of the wording differences between the United States and Iran means that the negotiations between the two sides have entered the final critical moment. To resolve differences in wording, the underlying message from both sides can be seen as: 1) The United States: "Hormuz must be substantively open, but does not want to be nominally dominated by Iran; Iran's nuclear weapons path must be cut off, and highly enriched uranium must be included in a verifiable processing path; it is acceptable to put nuclear details into 60 day follow-up negotiations, but there must be a commitment before that 2) Iran: "Navigation can be restored, nuclear negotiations can be entered, and some uranium inventory arrangement can be made, but it cannot be packaged as Iran surrendering, nor does it want to lose all management/coordination rights in Hormuz The core essence is that both sides need a decent argument, such as the one win, one statement discussed yesterday. 3. The "self-defense strike" by the US military in southern Iran this morning is personally seen as a form of extreme pressure. Trump hopes to reach an agreement as soon as possible, but does not want to make too many concessions in the agreement. It is through this way to pressure Iran and show Iran that the US military is ready to start at any time. I personally don't think the probability is high In essence, Trump, who talked about earlier, could not bear the pain of the blockade war of attrition and tried to break the deadlock as soon as possible to end the conflict. He could not bear the consequences of delay. Iran also does not want the coastline to be blocked, the oil export to be blocked, and the economic income to be severely hit, nor does it want Trump to restart the war. Although it has the ability to protect itself and fight back, it is also a problem for people's livelihood to be bombed into a mess at home. After talking for so long, the willingness to restart the fight is actually gradually weakening. The core is that even if you make a move, you may not necessarily get what you want, it could be a new quagmire. This is crucial. The closer we get to war, the closer we get to reconciliation. (This is easy to get slapped in the face) 4. From a personal perspective, it is increasingly likely that the US and Iran will reach a ceasefire model for last year's US China trade war, as discussed yesterday. 1) End the war and blockade first, cool down first. Ending or extending the current fragile ceasefire, reducing the risk of direct conflict between the United States and Iran, and gradually lifting the blockade of Iranian ports and related maritime transportation by the United States. Gradually reopen Hormuz; 2) Hormuz has resumed navigation, but there is a significant dispute over the execution rights. What the United States wants is "international waterways, free from charges, coercion, and complete openness"; Iran says it does not charge tolls, but can charge fees for navigation services and environmental measures, which will be implemented through an agreement with Oman. The final text of Hormuz is likely to be packaged as' Iran Oman - Ensuring Freedom of Navigation under the Framework of International Law '. This is to save face for Iran and provide the United States with an executable navigation mechanism. 3) Write down the principles first and discuss the details later on the issue of highly enriched uranium. Under the potential agreement, Iran may agree to abandon its highly enriched uranium stockpile, but how to handle it will be resolved within the 60 day negotiation period, which may include diluting a portion and transferring the rest to a third country; US officials say there will be no sanction relief if Iran does not abandon its inventory. But Iran's stance is more cautious, emphasizing that the current MoU is not discussing the nuclear issue in detail, only promising to enter into subsequent negotiations. 4) Funds, sanctions, and oil and gas exports are key exchange items for Iran. Reuters reported that the negotiations also involve the release of frozen Iranian funds; The Guardian reported that Iranian officials mentioned assets frozen in Qatar and pointed out that the Iranian central bank governor went to Qatar. This indicates that Iran is not just seeking a ceasefire, but rather tangible economic returns. This actually depends on the first three points, which are quite similar. The possibility of reaching a consensus on the fourth point is actually very high. The current negotiation situation gives me the feeling that it is not groundless, and the memorandum of understanding for the phased agreement is still in the final stage of communication, with details and terms still deadlocked; But it's not like 'one step at the door'. To be precise, the ball is already in the penalty area, but there is still a melee in front of the goal. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'