TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|May 20, 2026 16:03
After Huang Renxun and Li Zairong had fried chicken together last year, the fate of Samsung Nvidia is once again linked today. Nvidia will release its financial report after the US stock market closes, and Samsung has also reached a preliminary compensation agreement and postponed the strike. The precise timing of the two events is probably not a coincidence, but rather both management teams are serving the same purpose: ensuring the stability narrative of the HBM4 supply chain is fully presented at the super node of Nvidia's financial report. HBM4's full year production capacity has been sold out this year, and Nvidia is a core customer. Although Hynix has a large market share, its production capacity has a limit, and Nvidia needs at least two suppliers to hedge it. The shipping rhythm of Blackwell Ultra and Rubin directly relies on the scheduled delivery of Samsung HBM4. So the timing of delaying the strike on the eve of Nvidia's financial report is almost an inevitable political arrangement. If the Samsung strike really occurs and affects the delivery of HBM4, Huang Renxun will have to answer the soul question of "whether your storage supply is stable" during tonight's earnings conference, which will directly smash the entire AI industry chain. In fact, Samsung has over 50% foreign investment and is deeply tied to the concept of AI in the US stock market NVIDIA stock price → AI narrative → HBM demand → Samsung/Hynix performance → Korean export data → Korean GDP and KOSPI → Rationality of Samsung employee bonus demands Every link on this chain is interdependent, and if any link goes wrong, the entire chain will be damaged. So the Samsung labor union has little bargaining power in the face of internal and external pressure at this time, and compromise in the face of strikes is inevitable. The ban issued by the Suwon District Court yesterday actually began to show signs. What is truly noteworthy is that the AI super cycle has created a pattern of 'global capital hijacking'. The fluctuation of Nvidia's stock price will affect South Korea's GDP, Samsung's strike will affect the US stock market, and TSMC's capacity allocation will affect Japan's exchange rate. This kind of "systematic binding" is rare in history. The last global binding of similar degree may be on the eve of the Internet foam in 2000. When the strike is postponed, Nvidia's financial report will follow the rhythm, and the foam will probably not explode at this time, this is the system's self stabilization. But the cost of maintaining stability is that real risks are delayed and accumulated, rather than released.
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