75000 life and death line: US Treasury 5%+Iran crisis, Bitcoin 5th wave is cashing out

Bitcoin fell 2300 points in three days, from 79000 to 76020. 110000 people liquidated, $657 million was wiped out, and long positions accounted for 89%. This is not an accidental collapse, it is the realization of macro logic. The regulatory dividend is being consumed by the macro level, and the fifth wave is accelerating. 1、 Macroeconomics and Geopolitics: The True Air Force Commander is not an ETF institution, but a US Treasury Bond! The yield on US Treasury bonds soared to 5%. The 10-year period once reached 5.01%, the highest since 2023; The 30-year period has stabilized at 5.13%, reaching a new high since 2008. When risk-free treasury bond provides a return of more than 5%, the holding cost of Bitcoin rises sharply. The situation in Iran continues to deteriorate. Iran launches Hormuz Safe, a Bitcoin backed shipping insurance service in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warns Iran that 'time is running out', the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed, and about 20% of global oil trade routes are blocked. Brent crude oil has surpassed $111 per barrel. This is no longer the old logic of 'geopolitical risks directly hitting the cryptocurrency market'. The new transmission path is: geopolitical conflicts → soaring oil prices → rising inflation expectations → rising US bond yields → rising global asset pricing anchors → institutions reducing risk exposure → ETF fund outflows → Bitcoin under pressure. Bitcoin has been completely 'institutionalized', and its pricing power is not on the chain, but on Wall Street's balance sheet. The US dollar index has risen for 5 consecutive days, reaching a new high since the end of April. Foreign investment withdrew approximately $17 billion from emerging markets in Asia, excluding China, last week, setting a record for the second largest weekly outflow in history. Global funds are flowing back into the US dollar, putting collective pressure on risk assets. 2、 Natural Trading Theory: Quantitative Energy Refinement and Spatial Analysis Daily level bears are absolutely strong. The daily solid bearish candlestick with a trading volume of 172300 (a large volume decline) is a typical feature of the main downtrend in the fifth wave. The price continued to close at a small entity candlestick in the 76800-77200 range, with trading volume shrinking to the floor area. The four hour long position is very weak, with both long and short positions shrinking. It is a typical downward relay structure, not a bottom reversal. Once there is negative news or ETF institutions continue to sell, it is natural for prices to continue to fall. Fibonacci uptrend channel from February low 59600 to May high 82860: -0.618 retracement level 77300- has fallen below -0.382 retracement level 74500- Strong gravity level, next target -The retracement level of the 0 axis is 71200- the first target price of the 5th wave at the weekly level -The second target price for the fifth wave at the weekly level is around 60000 yuan; -The third target price and ultimate target price of the fifth wave at the weekly level is 40000 to 45000 yuan. 3、 On chain data: Institutions retreat, giant whales are attracting funds ETF funds are fleeing. On May 18th, there was a net outflow of 649 million US dollars in a single day, the largest since January 29th. BlackRock IBIT alone had an outflow of $448 million. Last week, there was a cumulative net outflow of 1.07 billion US dollars, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflows. But the giant whale is taking advantage of the situation to attract funds. The number of wallets holding over 100 BTC has risen to 20229, an increase of 11.2% compared to a year ago. The giant whale is taking advantage of the decline to increase its holdings. The exchange reserves have dropped to 2.21 million, a 7-year low, accounting for only 5.88% of the total supply. The availability of tradable BTC is decreasing, and a supply crunch is forming. This is the structural contradiction in the current market: short-term macroeconomic suppression becomes dominant, and institutions are retreating; But long-term holders are locked up, while giant whales are attracting funds. 4、 Quantity price relationship and technical form The daily chart has fallen below the middle of the uptrend channel and the 200 day moving average (81890), and the medium-term trend has been confirmed to be bearish. The weekly chart has closed with a bearish candlestick, and the price has been suppressed by the strong gravitational pull of the large cycle Fibonacci retracement to the 0.618 position, with no upward rebound momentum. The fifth wave of the weekly chart's main downward trend has been confirmed to have begun. Around 82800 is the rebound high point of the fourth wave, which is consistent with the previously predicted 80% probability of peaking. 5、 Three deduction paths for subsequent prices and core prediction conclusions Path 1 (45-50%): Hold at 75000-76000 and rebound to 77000-78500. This is currently the most likely path. Path 2 (35-40%): Below 75000, accelerate to 71000-72000. If US bond yields continue to rise or the situation in Iran worsens. Path three (10-15%): V-shaped reversal to recover 80000. The probability of a sudden reversal of ETF inflows, geopolitical easing, and a decline in US bond yields is currently extremely low. 75000 is the watershed between long and short positions. Once the daily closing falls below this level, the bullish structure will be completely destroyed, and the price will accelerate to the zero axis of the Fibonacci uptrend channel, which is around 71000. This situation is bound to happen sooner or later. 6、 Final reminder Three variables that must be monitored: Firstly, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds. Currently at 4.58-4.63%, if it breaks through 4.7%, Bitcoin will hit a second bottom. Secondly, the situation in Iran. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is not navigable, oil prices will not fall for a day. Whether the US will use force in late May is the biggest variable. Thirdly, support at 75000. 75000 is the last line of defense for bulls, and bulls will eventually collapse. Don't bargain, wait for the signal. For detailed analysis and trading strategies, please refer to the following article