I said yesterday that it's difficult to trade in the Walsh era, and many people actually misunderstood my meaning. I'm not saying he must be an eagle, nor am I saying he must be a pigeon, But it's because he will transform the Federal Reserve from a "predictable machine" to a "black box that needs to re guess the rules". It's like there used to be a game rule where everyone could predict, but now there are no rules, blind people touch elephants! Powell era: The most valuable aspect of the Federal Reserve is expectations management. Through forward guidance, dot plots, and presidential speeches constantly "spoiling" policy paths, the market can price interest rates, liquidity, and even default to the existence of "Fed put options". Everyone dares to overvalue, increase leverage, and hold risky assets for the long term, because 'ultimately the Federal Reserve will come to rescue the market'. Walsh's style is different: he clearly wants to weaken forward guidance, reduce the influence of dot matrix charts, and even publicly expresses a preference for "messy meetings". We no longer pursue clear consensus or predetermined paths from every FOMC, but instead encourage committee members to debate truthfully, speak less, and make fewer commitments. This means that the market can no longer simply "listen to the Fed" in trading, and must interpret inflation, employment, geopolitical and other data in real time on its own, with significantly increased requirements for reaction speed and accuracy. Because BTC often trades on USD liquidity, real interest rates, risk appetite, and leverage balance. If there is a "rate cut+balance sheet reduction" in the future, trading will be much more difficult than in the past. So in the short term, with increasing uncertainty, it is inevitable that Bitcoin: native will fall more like a high beta risk asset (following liquidity expectations rather than simply hedging against inflation).