Bitcoin falls below 78000, the 5th wave of decline officially begins! Abandon illusions, deep bear is coming I have seen countless' long trap traps', and this week's fourth wave of dead cat rebound at the weekly level also ended after the long trap, and the main downward trend of the fourth wave began. 1、 Let's talk about the market state first - this is not an ordinary callback Date: May 16th Price: Approximately $77800-78500 Key Signal: The daily chart closed negative for two consecutive days, and on May 16th, the physical bearish chart showed an increase in trading volume, with the trading volume increasing to about 67000 pieces; 4-hour level: absolute strength of bears - bears actively smash the market, with a downward trend; ETF institutions had a net outflow of $290 million today, and a net outflow of $635 million the day before yesterday. ETF prices have already been pushed up and run away in advance, and some people are still fantasizing about Bitcoin prices rebounding to $910000, which is simply a pipe dream! The current wave of decline is not a "pullback", but the fifth wave of downward trend has already begun, with a bearish first followed by a sharp drop, and a deep bear approaching, followed by a sharp drop. 2、 Core conclusion: The fifth wave has arrived Based on the judgment of the three-dimensional integrated system, I translate three sentences in human language: The fourth wave rebound has peaked around 82400 (high point 82860); The fifth wave of decline is being realized - target 71000-72000 (Fibonacci 0 axis); The ultimate goal is 45000 to 50000, which is the measurement target for the 5th wave at the weekly level. ⚠️ In extreme cases, BTC prices may penetrate around 38000. 3、 The 'long short conversion' is happening right in front of your eyes In early May, retail investors were shouting 'bull returns quickly', while institutions were quietly leaving. The ETF ended six consecutive weeks of net inflows, with a net outflow of approximately $1 billion last week. BlackRock IBIT flows out, Morgan Stanley MSBT is buying - institutional differences, but overall retreat. More than 150000 people have liquidated their positions, and multiple positions have been extensively cleared. Do you think your 'multi faith' is a moat? It is the Maginot Line. The bears went straight around. 4、 The most counterintuitive truth: US Treasury yields are the true 'Air Force Commander' Many people are staring at CPI and the Federal Reserve, but it is the bond market that really hits the market. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds soared to 4.599%, reaching a new high in nearly a year. The 30-year period surged to 5.125%, reaching a new high since 2007. The short-term interest rate has exceeded the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range. The market is helping the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in advance. This is not the Federal Reserve really raising interest rates, it is the "righteous police" in the bond market taking action. 5、 Three ways for ordinary traders to survive Abandon the "bottom fishing mentality" - in the early stage of the 5th wave of decline, do not touch the top, do not guess the bottom; Abandoning the 'hold on' strategy - In a bearish trend, a rebound is a bearish opportunity, not a bullish entry point; Establish a 'right-hand thinking' - wait for the signal to be confirmed before starting, do not rush. 6、 Six step implementation plan (if you still want to survive in the market) Step 1: Give up your fantasies and acknowledge that the fifth wave has arrived; Step 2: engrave "rebound short selling" into your mind -79000-80000 is the short position layout area; Step 3: Ask yourself a question every day - "Is my position direction consistent with the macro trend today Step 4: Give up the "one basket" and learn to build positions in batches and strictly cut losses; Step 5: Switch from "Dead Brain" to "Trend Tracking Brain" - the market has no position, only direction; Step 6: Consider this bear market as the 2008 financial crisis; People who have not experienced the baptism of a bear market are not worthy of making money in a bull market. This drop is not a 'correction', it is the fifth main drop wave. However, the downward space this time may be much larger than most people imagine. 7、 The last warm reminder A deep bear is approaching, and there is a high probability that the US stock market will plummet along with Bitcoin! Pay attention to the risks caused by a sharp drop! In the next three months, the Bitcoin market will be split in half: On one side is the 'opportunist' - following the fifth wave of decline to short sell On one side is the 'single carrier' - crushed by their own multi headed beliefs It doesn't matter which side you stand on, whether it's the duration or size of your position. It only depends on what you did after turning off this tweet today. Forward it to the friend who is still carrying the order, and he will thank you by the end of May. 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