qinbafrank|May 15, 2026 04:58
Why is the total market value of optical module companies lower than that of Micron? There is no other reason, it is mainly determined by market capacity and industry concentration. To elaborate:
1. The market size of storage is ten times larger than that of optical modules/CPOs
The global storage chip scale is expected to reach nearly 250 billion US dollars in 25 years, and the global storage market scale is expected to reach 370-400 billion US dollars in 26 years. However, for the storage market scale in 29 years, there are some conservative estimates of 6-7 trillion US dollars, and optimistic estimates of 91 trillion US dollars.
The overall size of the global optical module and CPO market is expected to grow from 16.5 billion US dollars in 2025 to 26 billion US dollars in 2026, with an annual growth rate of over 57%. CPO was still small in scale in 26 years, mainly consisting of optical modules. In the next few years, it is estimated that the average market capacity for optical modules/CPOs will reach over 50 billion US dollars for 29 projects, and there is optimism that it may reach 80-90 billion US dollars.
But overall, the storage market size is about ten times larger than that of optical modules.
You can tell from the revenue volume that:
Hynix's latest quarterly revenue was $35 billion, while Micron's revenue was $28 billion.
And Zhongji Xuchuang's quarterly revenue was 2.5 billion US dollars, Cohr's was about 1.8 billion US dollars, and Lite's quarterly revenue was less than 1 billion US dollars.
The revenue volume also determines the market value scale
2. Industrial concentration
The storage industry is highly oligopolistic, with mid to high end storage chips Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron accounting for 80-90% of the market share. The barriers are extremely high (capital+technology), and the leading companies have deep moats. Moreover, storage vendors have strong vertical integration capabilities and strong control over the industrial chain. Samsung, Hynix, Micron, Kaixia, as well as domestic brands such as Changxin and Changcun, are basically enough for memory chips. If we go further upstream
The fragmentation of the industrial chain in the field of optical modules/CPOs is severe. I believe everyone has a deep impression of the optical module market for its numerous links and numerous competitors in each link. From upstream materials, to silicon optics, lasers, components, connections, and more. In addition, the technological roadmap is still iterating through the paths of optical modules, NPOs, and CPOs, and there are also many new players.
So it is the market size, company size, and industry concentration that together determine that the market value of storage enterprises is much larger than that of optical module/CPO enterprises, especially the market value of mid-level Xuchuang, which is already $150 billion, and the revenue volume of COHR and Lite, which is $80 billion. Looking at their revenue volume, it can actually match.
If only the difference in market value between optical module enterprises and storage enterprises is used to make investment decisions, it is actually a misconception.
The core is to see what level of market capacity the industry can reach, how much market share this enterprise can gain, especially in the field of optics, which is rapidly evolving from optical modules to NPOs, and then to CPOs. Whoever masters the core technology naturally has more space.
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