BTC Evening Analysis | May 13th BTC continued to grind in the range of 80000 to 82000 today, but was pushed back after reaching 82000 last week. At present, around 81000 yuan, the volatility has shrunk to only about 2%, and the market is clearly in the same direction. The biggest variable today is the CPI released yesterday: 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest since May 2023. From 2.4% in February, it surged 1.4 percentage points in three months. The reason is not complicated - the Iran War has pushed up energy costs. The core CPI of 2.8% is not that scary, but the overall number is here, and the market's first reaction is to sell. Yesterday, the S&P fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq fell 0.8%, and BTC also fell from 82000. Even more troublesome is that the ceasefire negotiations in Iran do not seem to be going smoothly, and the situation may escalate. If oil prices continue to rise, inflation will not come down, and the Federal Reserve will have no room to cut interest rates. Kevin Warsh has just confirmed his identity as a Fed director, and he is also somewhat hawkish. But it's not all bad news. Trump flew to China today and brought Huang Renxun to Alaska. The first meeting between China and the US dollar is positive in itself, and if it can really stabilize the trade situation, it will be beneficial for risk assets. But the market is still observing and there is not much pricing involved. In addition, Jane Street's Q1 13F has come out: BTC ETF positions have been significantly reduced, IBIT has decreased by 71%, and FBTC has decreased by 60%. Although the data is lagging behind, the signal significance is that institutions have increased their holdings of ETH ETFs and mining stocks while reducing BTC, which may be a rotation of positions and not necessarily a comprehensive bearish view. Technically speaking, BTC has been stuck below the 200 day EMA for several days now, with 82000 being heavily suppressed. Breaking through requires a strong catalyst - CPI is not easy in the short term. The support below is around 78000 yuan. My judgment: I am cautious in the short term and have a slight downward trend. The inflation data has just been released and the market is still digesting it. The unstable situation in Iran has pushed back expectations of interest rate cuts. After BTC was continuously hit back at 82000, the bullish momentum was a bit exhausted. For the remaining trading days of this week, we may first step back to 78000-79000 and then wait for the results of Trump's China trip. Don't be pessimistic in the medium term, but don't rush to chase after more in the short term.