星球日报|May 12, 2026 14:48
Delphi Digital analyzes the marginal changes in the Bitcoin financing model of Strategy, where STRC becomes a key expansion engine but risks increase synchronously
Odaily Planet Daily News: Crypto research firm Delphi Digital has released its latest report "How Far Can Saylor Stretch It", which systematically analyzes Strategy's Bitcoin (BTC) fund expansion mechanism and points out that its financing structure is entering a stage of "marginal efficiency decline" from "low-cost holding". The report shows that in the current asset accumulation system centered around Bitcoin, STRC has become the core financing tool for Strategy's continuous purchase of BTC. In the early days, the significant premium of MSTR stock price (mNAV far higher than BTC net value) was relied upon to achieve a positive cycle of "issuing shares and increasing holdings". However, as the valuation fell back to about 1.24 times the EV base mNAV, the BTC/share thickening effect brought by the issuance of common stocks has approached breakeven. At the same time, although convertible bond instruments have played an important role in historical stages, they have accumulated approximately $8.2 billion in principal and are facing concentrated repayment pressure after September 2027, putting pressure on the long-term sustainability of financing structures. STRC provides Strategy with a continuous source of financing by offering approximately 11.5% annualized monthly dividends to income investors to sustain the pace of BTC purchases. However, this mechanism also introduces a continuous cash flow obligation, allowing each round of financing to accumulate future dividend burdens while increasing BTC assets. The report emphasizes key risk scenarios: if BTC prices remain flat and MSTR premiums cannot be recovered, the "STRC financing coin purchase gain" may be gradually offset by "common stock dilution and dividend obligations". Although the company's cash reserves of approximately 2.25 billion US dollars can cover the redemption pressure of approximately 1 billion US dollars in 2027, the larger scale debt and dividend structure in 2028 still needs to be resolved. In addition, the current authorized issuance limit of approximately $28.3 billion for STRC has become a key constraint node. Once the upper limit is reached, the purchasing power of new BTC may slow down, but the existing dividend obligations will continue to exist, thereby changing the overall BTC/stock dynamic growth path.
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