看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|May 11, 2026 02:15
After scanning the semiconductor stocks by PEG, Micron was surprisingly the cheapest. PEG less than 1 usually means that growth has been mispriced. If PEG is greater than 2, enter the danger zone. Here are the PEG ratios of each company: Dangerous zone with PEG greater than 2: INTC is about 2.8 times. Intel, a well-established giant, has weak growth and a high valuation. Semiconductor stocks divided by price to earnings ratio (PEG) PEG<1 usually means incorrect pricing for growth PEG > 2, Then start entering the danger zone Here are the PEG ratios of each company: INTC is approximately 2.8 times LRCX is approximately 2.0 times KLAC is about 2.0 times AMAT is about 2.0 times ASML's stock price is approximately 1.7 times ALAB is about 1.6 times ARM is about 1.5 times ANET is about 1.5 times LITE is about 1.3 times TSM is approximately 1.1 times CRDO is approximately 1.0 times • NVDA ~1.0x COHR is approximately 0.9 times AVGO is approximately 0.9 times AMD is about 0.7 times SNDK is about 0.7 times MRVL is approximately 0.7 times AAOI is about 0.6 times • ON is about 0.5 times MU is about 0.4 times You didn't see it wrong, Nvidia is only 1x, while Micron is 0.4x. The lowest in the whole game. --- Speaking of which, we have to mention MU. Micron Technology specializes in memory. In the impression of many people, memory is a tough business with strong cyclicality and low profit margins. But this time, the situation is a bit different. In just over two years, Micron's quarterly profit is expected to grow from approximately $2 billion to nearly $36 billion. An 18 fold increase. This is not a cyclical recovery, it is a structural demand explosion. --- That's the question, why is Micron hanging up like this. Three words. AI,HBM, Bottleneck. This situation occurs when artificial intelligence transforms memory into high bandwidth memory (HBM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), and storage device bottlenecks. GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.7, and Gemini 3 Pro are all dedicated to larger context, longer inference, and persistent proxy memory. In human terms, AI models are getting bigger and require more and more memory. And it's not just ordinary memory, it's a high-end product like HBM. The production capacity of HBM is limited, and there are only a few manufacturers that can do HBM. Micron won't say much. What does this mean. This means that memory has transformed from a 'commodity' in the past to a 'strategic resource' now. The pricing power has shifted from the buyer's hands to the seller's hands. This is somewhat similar to the chip shortage in 2021, but the underlying logic is completely different. That was a supply chain interruption, this time it was a structural outbreak of demand. The market seems to be still looking at Micron with the old eyes. I think it is a cyclical stock, I think it will repeat the same mistakes, and I think its high growth is unsustainable. But what if AI's demand for memory is structural. What if the capacity bottleneck of HBM cannot be solved in just one or two years. What if Micron's profit center has permanently reached a new level. That 0.4 times PEG is not cheap, it's outrageous. --- Brothers, look at that PEG list, there's another interesting phenomenon. Traditional device leaders LRCX, KLAC, and AMAT are all around 2.0 times, while AI chip design companies NVDA and AMD are all below 1.0 times. What does this mean. The pricing logic of the market has shifted from 'who sells the shovel' to 'who excavates the gold mine'. Equipment vendors sell shovels, which are stable but have limited growth. Chip designers are gold miners, with high risks but also high returns. And Micron, it is both a shovel seller (DRAM, NAND) and a gold miner (HBM). Its valuation is still within the range of selling shovels. This is not a pricing error, what is it. --- I don't want to recommend Micron I just feel that in the era where AI is changing everything, many traditional valuation frameworks are becoming ineffective. The PEG indicator itself has limitations. It assumes that growth is linear and sustainable, but the demand explosion brought by AI may be nonlinear and phased. So when looking at PEG, you can't just look at the numbers. We need to look at the sources of growth behind the numbers, whether this growth is cyclical or structural, and whether the market is still pricing new companies with old stories. Thank you for creating the EFyurmIEQUITIES chart.
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