BTC market early bus: prices are in a two-way compression structure! Subsequent rebound target prices and their probability analysis: 77500, 78500, 79500. I conducted in-depth analysis and judgment on the probability of three rebound targets based on the order book structure, technical form, and market data from a three-dimensional integrated analysis system. 1、 Let's first take a look at the current BTC price structure status The price is currently operating in the range of 76000-76500, in a pattern of bi-directional compression: (1) Bottom support: There is a large accumulation of buying orders in the range of 75000 to 76800, forming a demand cluster; (2) Upper resistance: The selling pressure wall in the 80500-82000 range has been ongoing for over 24 hours, with orders arranged at approximately $3.3 million equidistant intervals and continuously maintained This is a typical bidirectional compression structure, with prices sandwiched in the middle, accumulating energy for directional breakthroughs. Does this look like a BTC sandwich cookie? The main forces of both long and short sides are desperately squeezing, and the trend direction of the center line will soon undergo a reversal! I think there is a high probability that the Air Force will eat up the multiple armies! 2、 Probability evaluation of three target prices 77500, approximately 1000-1500 points away from the current location, with a probability of 55-60%. The core criteria are 4-hour MA30 resistance and short-term technical goals; 78500, approximately 2000-2500 points away from the current location, with a probability of 35-40%. It is necessary to break through the short-term resistance zone and the kinetic energy is declining; 79500, about 3000-3500 points away from the current level, with a probability of 15-20%, approaching the previous high level, requires a macro catalyst, which may come from the US Iran peace agreement. However, the current US Iran negotiations are deadlocked and unwilling to compromise, so this catalyst is highly likely to fail! 2.1 Rebound target price 77500: probability 55-60% Why is the probability the highest? This is the resistance level of the 4-hour MA30 and also the closest technical resistance above the current price. The four hour level shows EMA50 resistance at around $76743, with an implied probability of around 37% around $77000. 77500 is the upper edge of this resistance range. Condition met: The price only needs to rebound moderately, without breaking through key resistance zones. As long as we hold onto the support of 76000, the probability of touching 77500 is relatively high. 2.2 Rebound target price 78500: probability 35-40% Why is the probability average? The area of 78000-80000 is the position where it has repeatedly fallen below, and the 0.786 position of the Fibonacci uptrend channel belongs to the strong gravity zone, which constitutes technical resistance. The price triggered a pullback after being rejected in the region, and the implied probability of rebounding to 77000 is only 37%, with a lower probability for higher targets. Requirement: Long positions need to effectively break through 77500 and remain stable, with matching trading volume. At present, the momentum is slowing down, and the K-line is becoming smaller with shadow lines appearing on both sides, indicating that the price is hesitant when approaching resistance levels. 2.3 Rebound target price 79500: probability 15-20% Why is the probability the lowest? 79500 approached the high pressure area of the 1st axis of the front Fibonacci channel, and the first two rebounds below 79500 failed. Bitcoin has not closed above the 200 day moving average (82228) since October 2025, and there is a triple resistance aggregation in the 80000-82000 area: the 200 day moving average, the downtrend line, and the psychological barrier of 80000. About 2.25 billion US dollars of short positions are concentrated around 80000 US dollars, and the main force of short positions is heavily deployed here. Requirement: Macro catalyst cooperation is required (unexpected positive news in US Iran negotiations, lower than expected CPI data, etc.), and significant increase in spot trading volume is needed. If the price really wants to touch 79500, it may have to wait until mid May. 3、 Scenario deduction of subsequent BTC price trends Scenario A: Mild rebound, with a probability of 45-50% of falling back after the path from 76000 to 77000-77500. The key condition is that the trading volume maintains the current level and there is no significant catalyst. Scenario B: Strong rebound, with a probability of 25-30% that the path from 76000 to 77500 and then to 78500-79000 will be blocked. Trading volume needs to be increased, and macro data will boost sentiment in the short term. Scenario C: Directly fall back, path 76000 cannot be held, dip 74000-75000, probability 20-25%, need to break through key support, bears begin to exert force. Once the BTC price completely falls below 75000, the weekly level 5th wave will begin! This is the price range for adding positions and shorting! Scenario D: Extreme breakthrough, breaking through 79500 and surging to 80500, with a probability of less than 10%, requiring unexpected macro positive news and a significant inflow of ETFs. 4、 Core Mind Art Reminder The order book data shows that the selling pressure wall in the 80500-82000 area is actively maintained, not a random accumulation, but a statement that someone wants the market to know that there is a willingness to sell at these price points. This wall has survived for a whole trading day, and immediately after being cancelled, orders of the same size were placed at the same location. The existence of this wall means that even if prices can rebound to 77500 or even 78500, there will still be real strong resistance in the 80000-82000 range. But the bearish main force did not actively smash the market. They just built a wall on top, waiting for the price to rebound properly, waiting for the bulls to use up their last breath, and then harvesting along the way. The 77500-78500 region is the first battlefield of long short game. Based on the comprehensive analysis and probability distribution logic above, I believe that it is more prudent to short BTC in batches and time slots in this region and lay out medium-term short positions! For reference only, self financing.