Latest decision from the Federal Reserve: Hold on as scheduled, benchmark interest rate unchanged! In the interest rate decision announced by the Federal Reserve at 2:00 am Beijing time on April 30th, the target range for the federal funds rate remained unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. This is the third consecutive time since the January meeting that there has been no action, which is completely consistent with the market's general expectations. Key point: The end of the Powell era and hawkish signals. This is not just an ordinary interest rate resolution, it marks the official end of the Powell era. The hawkish tone of the 'last dance': This is the last press conference during the tenure of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The tone of his speech was widely interpreted by Wall Street as slightly hawkish. Powell's core message is that the Federal Reserve will remain steadfast and believe that current policies are fully prepared to address the risks faced by the dual mission. The expectation of interest rate cuts has been further suppressed: influenced by inflation data (March CPI year-on-year 3.3%) and ongoing geopolitical tensions (such as the Iran war and energy shocks), Federal Reserve officials generally expect the decline in inflation to be postponed again. The meeting further weakened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. At present, the Federal Reserve observation tool of Zhishang Institute and the predictions of multiple investment banks show that the market has basically ruled out the possibility of interest rate cuts within the year, and Deutsche Bank and others have even adjusted the benchmark scenario to "remain unchanged indefinitely. Summary and outlook: Three key variables that will affect the subsequent trend of Bitcoin: (1) Dovish/hawkish pricing: The overall decision leans towards hawks, but due to meeting expectations, the market response is still acceptable. What needs to be wary of in the future is that if the Federal Reserve releases more hawkish signals due to stubborn inflation, it may suppress risky assets (including Bitcoin). (2) Geopolitics (the US Iran situation) remains at the core: the core driving force behind the sustained rise in oil prices is geopolitical risk, rather than simply supply and demand. The continuation or easing of the state of war will directly affect inflation expectations and global risk appetite, and its impact on the market may even exceed the single interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve. (3) ETF fund flow: It is worth noting that before the interest rate decision, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of funds for two consecutive days (about $89.68 million on Tuesday), breaking the previous nine day net inflow record. This indicates that large institutions tend to be cautious before key macro nodes, and recent financial dynamics require special attention.