I originally intended to state my personal understanding and viewpoint within 200 words. I apologize for accidentally writing another lengthy article. I just can't get rid of this stubborn habit. Thank you to all the friends who patiently watched it! To avoid misunderstandings, let me briefly summarize: 1. Logically speaking, this time it should be the same (i.e. the probability of encountering obstacles on the dual cost line is higher). The reason is that the bottom chip structure appears thin and the foundation is not solid, which is not conducive to later development. 2. But this time it is also very likely to be 'different', this is my subjective feeling, the biggest difference is that 'the lower limit may be rising'. Many friends believe that BTC will fall below RP and LTH-RP in every bear market. But as I said, this round has been able to receive effective support multiple times within<10y_RP, which is a phenomenon that has never been seen in the past 10 years. Therefore, we have reason to suspect that the "atypical characteristics" of this bear market are emerging. If<10y_RP can completely digest the throwing pressure, why do we need to go further and seek bottom consensus for RP ($54000) or LTH-RP ($46000)? I have followed over 100 top analysts and traders in the English community, and recently, I have noticed significant differences in their views: A believes that the real bear bottom will be even lower (in Q3 or Q4); B believes that $60000 is the bottom (which can bring back over 100000 this year). In my opinion, let's wait for the market to give an answer: if BTC can break through the dual pressure of STH-RP and TMMP, then B is highly likely. On the contrary, the probability of A is higher, or A and B are split 50-50.