Is this time "different" or is this time "the same"? (Continued) ——In the previous article, we explained the roles of STH-RP and TMMP and why they become the strongest resistance levels. And this article continues to share my personal understanding and perspective. Logically speaking, this time it should be the same. BTC should not easily break through at once under the resistance of the dual cost foundation, but should continue to decline, consolidate the chip structure, and let the market confirm the bottom consensus again. As we can see in Figure 1, there is currently no significant demand heat in the 6-7 million US dollars range, and the chip structure appears somewhat thin. If we compare the dense accumulation area formed in February 2022, we can see the difference. But, 'Will this time be different?' - is a question I have been seriously considering recently. To be honest, I feel something 'different' happening quietly right under our noses. For example,<10y_RP (purple line in Figure 2) is a realized price that I obtained by removing chips that I have held for more than 10 years without moving from the cost statistics, which is closer to the true market level. Similarly, in the past 13 years, there has never been a bear market where BTC did not fall below<10y_RP, and this time it just couldn't fall here. During the period of extreme market panic from February to April this year, BTC tested<10y_RP multiple times without breaking through, which is by no means a coincidence. It indicates that the market has reached a certain limit point and the selling pressure has been completely absorbed. Combined with the 'Investor Confidence Index for Trends', although it almost completely replicates the previous cycle in form, the volatility and time span are significantly smaller than the previous cycle (Figure 3). Based on these, I personally believe that we have reason to doubt whether the "atypical characteristics" of this bear market are gradually emerging. If BTC can really break through the dual pressure of STH-RP and TMMP this time, it will be the most special bear market in BTC's 13 year history. Even if it is not a direct reversal, it may fall below STH-RP again in the later stage, but as long as there is a first breakthrough, I will believe that the market has already emerged from the "deep bear" and entered another new stage - the bear bull transition period. Just like from April 2019 to July 2020, and from January to September 2023, it was a process of market digestion of differences and a shift in bearish sentiment (Figure 4). During this period, even if there is a 'last drop', it cannot be ruled out that a 'calf' may emerge. The market is always right and does not change according to our personal will. After all, past experience is the past, and practice is the only criterion for testing truth. There are currently two views in the market: A believes that the real bear bottom will be even lower; B believes that $60000 is the bottom. Which side has a higher probability? I think there's no need to argue. When the market tells us in its unique way, what we need to do is to be able to understand it, and "cost basis" and "price behavior" are its most honest language.