The preview version of Deepseek V4 has finally been released. Based on last year's experience, it seems that we should short Nvidia. However, the impact caused by Deepseek this year is not as significant, and directly applying last year's experience may not be effective. However, Nvidia's stock price is indeed at a high level now, and the overall US chip blockade on China is forcing domestic software and hardware substitution to accelerate. This policy is not conducive to Nvidia, as it has lost such a large market for nothing. According to reports, V4 is entirely based on Huawei Ascend 950PR training, bypassing the CUDA ecosystem. Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent have already pre ordered hundreds of thousands of Ascend 950PRs. Domestic large models are gradually transitioning from CUDA to CANN. The DeepSeeker V4 series released this time includes two models, both of which support a context length of 1M: DeepSeeker V4 Pro: The total parameter count is 1.6 T, and the activation parameter count is 49 B. DeepSeeker V4 Flash: The total number of parameters is 284B, and the number of activated parameters is 13A. Coincidentally, OpenAI also released a new model GPT-5.5 today, which provided support for Nvidia's stock price. OpenAI explicitly states that it is trained using Nvidia's latest generation system, directly countering the "de Nvidiaization" narrative of the V4. In addition to the previously released Claude Opus 4.7, NVDA's overall moat remains deep. In short, it is not advisable to go short rashly at present, and it depends on the degree of fermentation of DP in public opinion in the future. The time window for shorting NVDA may be better to choose 1-2 weeks before the May financial report - because by then, the public opinion fermentation of V4 has been relatively sufficient, Blackwell Ultra's expectations have been digested, Huang Jiaozhu has not yet started the next round of narrative defense, and the financial report itself is a natural converter. If it does not exceed expectations and combined with the current overbought technical situation, it is likely to open short.