4.22 BitTiger Diary

The turning point for BTC is here—will it keep going up or turn downward? With the back-and-forth U.S.-Iran negotiations these past few days, the market is increasingly pricing in the rhythm of a potential agreement. $BTC has once again reached the True Mean Price (excluding long-dormant coins) of around 78k. The net realized loss across the network has touched the zero line. This is a very delicate position—it could continue upward or reverse downward. But looking back at the net realized loss during the drop below 60k, the loss back then was less than half of the previous two cycles. It was just a small appetizer for the transition from bull to bear. Losses of this magnitude, no matter how you analyze historical data, are unlikely to stop here. The process of patiently waiting for the bottom is bound to be grueling. It's filled with temptations, hesitation, self-doubt, and more. Since we've chosen to wait for the big bear market bottom, there should be no action taken until the signals are completely clear. At the same time, as adults, we must bear the consequences (missing out) of sticking to our decisions. Believe in BTC, believe in the cycle. 77,500 ✊✊✊