Murphy|Apr 17, 2026 03:59
On April 14, when BTC surged to $76,000, the 24-hour average realized profit reached a staggering $54.78 million. This was the largest profit realization day among all rebound trends since the beginning of the year!
We know that in a bear market, overall market demand is relatively low (unlike in a bull market environment). Therefore, every instance of massive profit-taking represents a significant drain on the demand side.
Rebuilding demand requires external factors to stimulate it—for example, macroeconomic positive events that change investors' future expectations, policy measures that release liquidity and boost risk appetite, etc.
For now, both buyers and sellers need to take a breather, and the market enters a brief equilibrium period.
If there’s no external stimulus moving forward and sellers continue to exert pressure, then this rebound is likely over. Only more attractive prices can draw in additional demand.
If there is external stimulus, the market could push higher in the short term. But at that point, we need to observe whether the realized profit accompanying the rebound is less or more than the previous time.
Take January 7 and January 14 as examples: even though the price was higher on January 14, the realized profit was lower. This indicates that demand can no longer sustain such concentrated profit-taking.
This serves as a secondary confirmation signal that the rebound is nearing its end. Conversely, if realized profits increase, it suggests strong momentum and potential for further gains.
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