BTC Short term Market Quick Report: Institutions are buying again, prices are firm, and the next rebound target price is below 78000 yuan. Figure 1: ETF institutions had a net inflow of 410 million US dollars yesterday, and ETF institutions are also volatile; The inflow and outflow of funds are fluctuating, and the attitude of institutions is unstable. ETF funds quickly flowed back after the price fell, indicating that institutions still have allocation demand in the 74000-75000 range. Video 2: Binance just started buying Bitcoin after the US stock market closed! They buy millions of dollars worth of BTC every few minutes without interruption. It seems that they know good news is coming soon. Figure 3: The sales wall on the order book is piling up, and buying orders are also beginning to increase,; The buyer and seller are evenly matched, indicating significant differences; Figure 4: The short position for four hours can be relatively weak, while the long position can be strong, with prices oscillating and accumulating momentum at the 0.618 level of the Fibonacci channel; There is a high possibility that it will impact the position of 0.786, which is around 78000. Geopolitics: The US Iran negotiations continue to release positive news of extending the ceasefire. This is the biggest variable in the current trend of Bitcoin price, and also the risk point that needs to be vigilant about the most. Market Summary: 1) Quantitative energy judgment: Currently in the 'depletion stage after secondary quantitative energy pulses'. After falling from 76000 on April 14th, the trading volume continued to shrink, indicating insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. In natural trading theory, a rebound without the support of a primary volume cannot be sustained. The fourth wave of the weekly dead cat rebound continues, while the fifth wave of the weekly main decline, although delayed, will eventually arrive. 2) The US Iran negotiations are making progress, but a final agreement has not yet been reached. The market's expectation of a "ceasefire extension" has been partially priced, but if the agreement is reached beyond expectations, it may trigger a new wave of BTC price surges. 3) The three possible follow-up price trends deduced earlier are still valid, as shown in Figure 4. (1) Negotiation breakthrough (benchmark), probability 45-50% The price will be tested upwards at 75000 to 76000, and will change downwards after April 22nd; (2) The probability of negotiation exceeding expectations (breakthrough) is 20-25% Price exceeds 76000, tested between 78000-79500; (3) The probability of no progress (weakness) in negotiations is 25-30% The price has dropped to 72500-73500, but the rebound is weak and has reached its peak.