On the evening of April 15th, the latest brief review of Bitcoin's short-term medium-term: The current core state of the BTC market is that short positions are increasing, but ETF funds are significantly flowing back, and there is good news of a ceasefire extension in the US Iran negotiations. The latest progress in the US Iran negotiations has released positive news, which is currently the most volatile variable in Bitcoin prices. According to CCTV News on April 15th, sources said that the US and Iran have "agreed in principle" to extend the temporary ceasefire agreement, which will expire on April 22nd, in order to gain more diplomatic time. According to reports from the United States, mediators are approaching an agreement to extend the ceasefire and are pushing for the resumption of negotiations. The second round of negotiations is expected to be held on April 16th. On the 14th, Trump stated that talks with Iran "may take place in Pakistan within the next two days". If the news of the ceasefire extension is confirmed, it will eliminate the "hard deadline" risk of Bitcoin's reversal on April 22 and provide breathing space for bulls. But the core differences between the two sides (nuclear program, Strait of Hormuz, war reparations) are still huge, and a substantive agreement is still out of reach. BTC short-term market trend: After the Bitcoin price falls from 76000, it is likely to fluctuate in the range of 73500-75000, waiting for negotiation news on April 16th. If the negotiation confirms the extension of the ceasefire, the price may be tested upwards again between 75000 and 76000; If the negotiations break down, it may quickly drop to 73000 or even 72500. BTC Midline Strategy: Before April 22nd, if the price rebounds to the area of 75000 to 76000 and there is a bearish signal, place medium-term short orders in batches. Don't touch the top, don't guess the top, wait for the signal to confirm. Finally, let's summarize: 1) Short signal: The head volume can double in 4 hours, the bears are absolutely strong in 1 hour, the daily chart is long above the shadow line, and the Fibonacci gravity level has been reached. 2) Long signal: ETF net inflow of $411 million in a single day, US Iran ceasefire agreed in principle to be extended, with large inflows of funds on the chain. 3) This is a moment of divergence between natural transaction theory, on chain data, and volume price relationships. The market signal is bearish, but the funding and news sides are bullish. In this divergent environment, it is recommended that friends do not engage in heavy handed games in any direction. Lightly position, short term, fast in and fast out, or simply wait and see until the signals are consistent again before taking action. Let the bullets continue to fly. The negotiation news on April 16th is crucial.