US trucking costs are rapidly rising: The per-mile cost to hire a truck to move goods is up to $2.97 per mile, the highest since June 2022. At the same time, the dry-van rate, the most common truck type used for general freight like retail and packaged goods, is up to $2.50 per mile, the highest since May 2022. Both rates have risen roughly +30% since September 2025. This comes as diesel prices have spiked nearly +50% since the start of the Iran war, forcing haulers to raise weekly per-mile fuel surcharges. Meanwhile, truck transportation payrolls are down to 1.46 million, the lowest since September 2020, which was already tightening the supply of available drivers and pushing rates higher even before the war. Fewer drivers and surging fuel costs are now being passed directly to shippers, raising inflation pressures across the economy. Inflation will soon follow.(The Kobeissi Letter)