Top Overnight News Trump will deliver a speech on Wednesday at 9 p.m. Washington time to give an update about the war in Iran: BBG Oil fell, sending Brent briefly below $100 a barrel, after Donald Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in two to three weeks. The US would withdraw once Tehran can no longer obtain nuclear weapons, he said. Attacks continued across the Middle East. Qatar said a cruise missile from Iran struck an oil tanker. BBG The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks. WSJ Trump said he’s strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it didn’t join the war on Iran. He told the Telegraph that leaving the block was now “beyond reconsideration.” BBG California is confronting sky-high petrol prices and the threat of jet fuel shortages because of disruption caused by the Iran war, exposing US energy insecurity as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The most populous US state is vulnerable to the turmoil in world energy markets because it relies on imports of refined products such as petrol and jet fuel from Asia after introducing ambitious plans to phase out fossil fuels and significantly reduce refining capacity in favor of renewables. Californians pay the most for petrol in the country, with a gallon averaging $5.88 — the highest level since the pandemic — compared to $4.01 in the rest of the US, according to the American Automobile Association. FT Russia exported more liquefied natural gas in the first quarter of 2026 than it did a year earlier, with shipments to Europe increasing despite Moscow's push to redirect supply away from the region. RTRS China’s factory activity slowed in March for export-oriented firms as their costs surged, according to RatingDog’s PMI. That contrasts with an official gauge that showed manufacturing improving despite the Iran war. BBG Chinese government bonds have sidestepped a global debt sell-off since the start of the Iran war, as the world’s second-biggest economy emerges as a haven from soaring energy prices and rising global inflation. Investors are betting that whereas major central banks in the US and Europe will be forced to keep interest rates at higher levels than previously expected to counter inflation triggered by rising oil and gas prices, China will be relatively insulated thanks to its energy mix and very low inflation before the conflict. FT Japan may face stagflation risks from the Iran war that would be challenging to deal with using monetary policy, new Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada said on Wednesday. RTRS Trump signs executive order related to mail-in voting, said working on proof of citizenship and that voter ID and citizenship proof are subjects for another time. OpenAI raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation in its largest funding round yet. BBG Since the start of the Iran war, market pricing for the fed funds rate has swung sharply, and it now implies a roughly 45% chance that the FOMC will hike in 2026. While some of this reflects changing demand for insurance against the tail risk of more hikes, the market-implied probability that the FOMC delivers 1-2 cuts—the modal case before the war—has declined from 35-40% to about 18%. Expectations for other central banks have moved even more, and market pricing now implies about 70bp of hikes from the ECB in 2026, compared to 8bp of cuts before the war Trump asks CPA for lists of insurers who were good to clients, and list who were bad in response to California fires.(zerohedge)