Phyrex|Mar 31, 2026 21:35
Headache, mainly because there are too many news today, to the point where I don't know which one is true or false. On the one hand, almost all the media on the internet are saying that Iran is preparing for a ceasefire. On the other hand, it can be inferred from the reports that this was said on March 30th, but the effect is indeed happening now. After the media reports, oil prices dropped instantly, and the US stock market rebounded instantly, from a downward trend to a rise of more than 3%. Even BTC has risen by over 2%.
What the real situation is now is actually not important, because just after the news was released, the United States continued to fire on Iran, and Iran also continued to attack the United States and its allies. At least the war has not stopped, and Iran's diplomatic ambassador directly connected with Al Jazeera, saying that there is no intention of negotiating with the United States and denying that they are preparing for a ceasefire. Indeed, the war is still ongoing.
Just at the end of the US stock market, Trump suddenly made a speech saying that the war against Iran was almost over. I would still believe what Trump said last week. I doubt what he said now. Even if the United States sent more troops, even a ground war may not be able to directly defeat a country with thousands of years of faith.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the turnover rate is not high and the trading volume is not particularly high. It should be that the news of Iran's ceasefire has boosted market sentiment. Although this is a good thing, it is unknown whether this sentiment will end quickly if the short-term war cannot be ended. The current US oil price is still around $102, although it has fallen, it is not a significant amount, which also indicates that the market does not have strong confidence in the end of the war.
Trump has also done a lot of things in China recently. On the 1st, there was a hearing. Trump wanted to cancel the law that the United States was born a citizen, and the judge issued an order to temporarily stop the Trump White House ballroom project. Behind Trump, there were customs duties and the pit of the chairman of the Federal Reserve waiting to be filled.
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