Last year, BlackRock released a chart showing that Bitcoin performs well following geopolitical shocks, a chart that has been widely shared, including me. Using the Geopolitical Risk Index by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) and extreme GPR spikes (2 SD above its 90-day mean) since 2017, the picture does not look as clean. It is more of a coin flip. 60-day returns: 55% positive, 45% negative. Median: +3.8%. Bitcoin doesn't systematically hedge geopolitical risk. It doesn't systematically suffer from it either.(Dr. Jan Wüstenfeld)