[Shenwan Hongyuan: 'No Rate Cuts' May Be the Fed's 'Bottom Line'] Shenwan Hongyuan's research report suggests that since the end of February, following the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, crude oil prices have been steadily rising, sparking concerns about stagflation. The March FOMC meeting leaned hawkish, triggering tightening trades, and the market began speculating on the possibility of a Fed rate hike within the year. The Fed's hawkish policy stance aligns with expectations, but 'no rate cuts' may be the 'bottom line.' Moving forward, attention should be paid to the 'negative feedback' from tightening financial conditions. 'No rate cuts' may represent the Fed's hawkish 'bottom line' through 2026—rate hikes are an extremely low-probability event. This is primarily based on two factors: 1. The conditions for a 'Great Stagflation' similar to the 1970s are not sufficiently present. 2. Short-term inflationary pressures will suppress demand through mechanisms such as real income effects, financial condition effects, wealth effects, and expectations, thereby creating 'reflexivity' that impacts oil prices and inflation.