There is a high probability that the interest rate meeting tonight will not cut interest rates. Although the evening PPI is an important data before this month's interest rate, it is not a locked decision. The main geopolitical risks can quickly amplify or reverse signals brought by data through energy and financial premiums. The expected PPI values are in line with or lower than the previous values. If both the annual and monthly PPI rates fall back or are lower than expected, it will support the statement that "inflation is falling" before February without geography; If the annual rate remains stable but the monthly rate slightly meets expectations, it means that inflation is on a downward path If the double exceeds expectations, it indicates that inflation momentum has rebounded recently, which is not a good thing for the risk market. In addition, this is not Powell's last meeting, and it still depends on Walsh's attitude in the future. The key to the expectation of interest rate cuts is not the monthly figures themselves, but whether there are signals in the same direction in the coming months. Moreover, if the geopolitical relationship continues to escalate and oil prices remain volatile at high levels, it will also make the Federal Reserve more stringent in dealing with the timing of interest rate cuts. After all, the Federal Reserve values more the sustainability of inflation momentum and non isolated data on future paths. So data is not only a concern, but also whether the geopolitical situation can end soon is very important. Investors and decision-makers need to continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices, as well as subsequent inflation indicators. In addition, in terms of credit, the market's pricing at the time of interest rate cuts will affect trading operations. Although I mentioned yesterday that I could find an opportunity to short oil because the release of reserve crude oil and the gradual recovery of the strait could be a boost to the sentiment of the risk market. But this boost does not mean a reversal. After all, assuming that geopolitics can quickly end within 2-4 weeks and oil prices go down, I don't think we can be too optimistic about the entire risk market at that time. We need to return to macro monetary policy. Of course, the same goes for the US stock market. For on chain US stock trading, you can check out the recommendation code x8VP18 on my homepage at Maitong @ MSX_CN. Let's take a look at tonight's data and what Lao Bao has to say. It's probably still the same, inflation, economy, labor force, and so on. Of course, the market will still pay more attention to the new chairman, so the short-term emotional impact is limited